Florida Real Estate Blog

Home Sales, Prices to Pick Up in Second Half of 2008, Says NAR Chief Economist

WASHINGTON, May 15, 2008 - Home sales and prices throughout most of the country are poised for improvement in the second half of 2008, and the recovery will vary by market, Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of REALTORS® said today during NAR’s Midyear Legislative Meetings & Trade Expo. More than 9,000 REALTORS® and guests are attending the conference that runs here through Saturday.

Middle-America cities that performed evenly over the past few years – like Cincinnati, Milwaukee and the Kansas City, Mo., area – are likely to experience home price gains in the 20 to 30 percent range over the next five years, while markets like Miami, Las Vegas and Phoenix could see prices go up as much as 50 percent during that time period, Yun said.

Yun blamed most of the softening of the housing market over the last year on the “subprime mess,” where consumers with blemished credit records got loans they couldn’t afford when the interest rates reset to higher levels.

“In fact, if you look at where home prices fell the most, it’s the markets were subprime loans were prevalent,” Yun said. Cape Coral, Fla.; Detroit; Las Vegas; Miami; Orlando, Fla.; Phoenix and Riverside, Calif. were among the cities with a high percentage of subprime lending and where the markets suffered the biggest downturns, he explained.

“It’s important to keep things in context,” he said. “While much of the media is focusing on the fact that the rate of foreclosures doubled this year from historic averages, the foreclosure rate has gone from 1 percent of all homeowners with mortgages to 2 percent. Foreclosures are being driven principally by subprime loans.”

He further explained that more than half of today’s foreclosures are concentrated in the subprime market. The great majority of homeowners are making their mortgage payments on time.

Now that the subprime market has dried up, and loans insured by the Federal Housing Administration and those purchased by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are making a comeback, the housing markets will strengthen and prices are likely to begin a steady uptick in the coming months, Yun said.

Yun urged the Congress and White House to enact NAR-supported legislation to modernize FHA programs, reform regulation of the government-sponsored enterprises (Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac), establish a first-time home buyer tax credit, and make the temporary increases to the conforming loan limits established by the Economic Stimulus Act of 2008 permanent.

“These measures would quickly stabilize the housing markets and get fence-sitters into the market to buy homes,” Yun said.

“There are many reasons for people to get into the housing market today, and very few reasons not to. With the plentiful supply of homes for sale at affordable prices, interest rates approaching 40-year lows, and the strong track record of housing as a good long-term investment, conditions are ripe for buyers,” he added. “Those are the facts, plain and simple.”

As for a recession, it’s not happening, Yun said. “A slowdown, yes, but the definition of a recession is two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. It’s not in the cards – no matter how you look at it.”

Source: National Association of REALTORS Media Release

Downswing In Single-Family Market Deepens In April, Multifamily Construction Bumps Up For The Month

May 16, 2008 - The downswing in the single-family housing market deepened in April while a bump up for the month in the extremely volatile multifamily market lifted total housing starts 8.2 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.032 million units, according to figures released by the Commerce Department today. Total starts were down 30.6 percent from a year earlier.

Single-family housing starts dropped 1.7 percent for the month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 692,000 units, the lowest monthly production rate since January 1991 and 42.2 percent below April 2007.

“It’s no surprise that the single-family housing market continues to deteriorate since our surveys of builder confidence and market expectations have been hovering in a historically low range for the past nine months,” said NAHB President Sandy Dunn, a home builder from Point Pleasant, W.Va. “Congress and the Administration must act now to kick-start housing and lift the overall economy.”

“The demand for new homes still is quite weak, the overhang of vacant housing units on the market is at record proportions, consumer sentiment continues to fall and the economy has been losing jobs since the end of last year,” said NAHB Chief Economist David Seiders. “The fundamentals point to further deterioration of single-family housing production over the balance of this year, and the condo component of the multifamily sector also is destined to lose more ground.”

Multifamily housing starts rose 36.0 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 340,000 units in April after dropping 35.1 percent to a 250,000-unit pace the month before. The pace of multifamily construction was 17.6 percent above April 2007.

Total building permits rose 4.9 percent in April to a seasonally adjusted annual pace of 978,000 units. Total permits were down 34.3 percent from a year earlier.

Single-family permit issuance rose 4.0 percent to a pace of 646,000 units for the month. The pace was marginally lower than the first quarter average of 647,000 this year and 40.1 percent below April 2007.

The rate of multifamily permit issuance was up 6.8 percent to 332,000 units for the month. The pace was 19.2 percent below a year earlier.

Regionally, starts of new homes and apartments were up in the Midwest, South and West by 24.4 percent, 3.6 percent and 18.5 percent, respectively. Housing starts were down in the Northeast by 12.7 percent. All four regions reported a pace of construction substantially lower than a year earlier.

Source: National Association of Home Builders

In Florida Real Estate: Who Bought What? Where & Why Did They Buy It? Who Helped Them? Etc.

The Florida Association of REALTORs (FAR) had the National Association of REALTORs (NAR) prepare an annual report that reveals the characteristics of home buyers and sellers in the State of Florida for 2007. It is interesting to see what characteristics the buyers and sellers possess, and how they went about buying and selling properties in our state. It is also interesting to see how we compare to the rest of the United States.

Here are some of the highlights. You can download the complete report using the link I created at the bottom of this post.

BUYERS

• 38% of buyers were purchasing their first homes.
• Average home buyer was 43 years old.
• 64% had no children living at home.
• 59% were married.
• 21% were single females.
• 12% were single males.
• 6% were unmarried couples.
• 18% were not native-born Americans.
• 27% of the homes were "new construction" as opposed to resale homes.
• 58% were detached single-family homes.
• Average price in Florida was $230,000 as opposed to the national average of $215,000.
• Current buyers believe they will remain in their homes an average of 10 years.
• 80% of buyers used the internet to search for homes to buy.
• 72% felt that the internet was a VERY useful tool during their searches.
• 84% employed the services of a real estate agent or broker to conduct searches.
• 71% Used an agent or broker to purchase their homes.
• 68% plan on using the same agent in the future.
• 98% believed that honesty and integrity were the most important characteristics of a good agent or broker.
• 90% of buyers financed their purchases.
• 47% believe that purchasing a home is a better investment than buying stocks.

Sellers

• 51% of Sellers were "trading up" to larger properties.
• Most had owned their homes 6 years.
• Typically their homes had been on the market for 10 weeks before selling.
• 79% used the services of a real estate agent to sell their homes. Only 17% tried to go it alone.

To download the entire report which contains more information and also some useful graphs and charts, click on the following link: Download 2007_HBS_Custom_Report_FL.pdf

For more information or questions about this topic please call me at: 813-783-4444 or e-mail me at: jelwell1@tampabay.rr.com

I also invite you to visit my my website where I think you will find a lot of useful information. To get there just click on the following link: www.jelwell.century21bnr.com

Your Real Estate Agent and REALTOR in Zephyrhills, Florida

If you are looking for a home in the Zephyrhills or Eastern Pasco County, Florida, I would be happy to assist you. The same applies if you are thinking about selling your home here. Even in this slower market, I am selling homes for my customers and finding homes for my buyers.

Today the most important ingredient in marketing a home is its exposure on the internet. I take great pride in my use of sites like this weblog, as well as over 30 other sites that help tell the public that your wonderful home is available for purchase. The majority of my leads now come to me via the internet. I know of no other agents in this area that utilize the web as much as I do!

Many years ago I was reared on a farm in Western New York and I know what hard work is. I also worked as a teacher and a school director for more than 20 years, both in the United States and in Spain. In those roles I helped students achieve their goals. Now as a REALTOR I work hard to help my customers achieve some of the most important goals of their lives. Selling and/or buying properties.

So if you are considering selling or buying real estate in Zephyrhills or Pasco County, Florida, please contact me. I would greatly appreciate the opportunity to discuss the ways that I can assist you. As my motto goes, You Deserve a Full-Time, Full-Service REALTOR, Not Reduced Results!

For more information or questions about this topic please call me at: 813-783-4444 or e-mail me at: jelwell1@tampabay.rr.com

I also invite you to visit my my website where I think you will find a lot of useful information. To get there just click on the following link: www.jelwell.century21bnr.com

Tampa Area Housing Recovery Predicted for Second Half of 2008

Lawrence Yun, the chief economist for the National Association of REALTORs was in Tampa recently. He had some good news for home buyers, sellers, and REALTORS in the west central area of Florida.

It is his opinion that recovery should begin after August of this year. Though we hear doom-and-gloom on the television, Yun said there are several indicators that could be omens of better days to come.

1. It appears that the worst may have already passed us in the Tampa area.

2. There are many qualified home buyers who have been sitting on the fence for a long time and there is increased pressure for them to make a move in the future. Fears that mortgage rates and home prices could rise may push them off that fence.

3. Risky loan products are now being replaced by safer lending products.

4. Mortgage rates remain at historically low levels.

5. Housing starts are way down and this allows stale inventory to disappear, thus creating greater demand in the coming months and next year.

For those of us who have been around a while, we know that our current situation is not all doom and gloom. We are not in the boom of a couple of years ago, but we are not doing all that badly. Do any of you remember back in the late 70's and early 80's when mortgage interest rates were nearly 20%??

I will close on 3 homes next week. Sellers are selling and buyers are buying. The important thing is that buyers and sellers see our current situation in realistic terms and not dwell on the minuses. There are some, but there are lots of great plusses too. Like low interest rates, low home prices which translate into lower property taxes and lower insurance rates. More homes to choose from so sellers will negotiate.

It will be interesting to see if Mr. Yun's forecast comes true. I for one am optimistic!

For more information or questions about this topic please call me at: 813-783-4444 or e-mail me at: jelwell1@tampabay.rr.com

I also invite you to visit my my website where I think you will find a lot of useful information. To get there just click on the following link: www.jelwell.century21bnr.com

Soft Existing-Home Sales Expected Near-Term But to Rise Midsummer

WASHINGTON, May 07, 2008

A flat pattern in home sales activity should continue for the next couple months before improving over the summer, according to the latest forecast by the National Association of Realtors®.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said the extent of an expected recovery hinges on better access to affordable loans. "Things are beginning to improve, but the availability of affordable mortgages is uneven around the country and sometimes within metropolitan areas," he said. "As anticipated, we continue to look for a soft first half of the year, for both housing and the economy, before notable improvements in the second half. Some time is needed for FHA and new conforming jumbo loans to become widely available."

The Pending Home Sales Index,* a forward-looking indicator based on contracts signed in March, edged down 1.0 percent to 83.0 from a downwardly revised level of 83.8 in February, and was 20.1 percent lower than the March 2007 index of 103.9.

NAR President Richard F. Gaylord, a broker with RE/MAX Real Estate Specialists in Long Beach, Calif., said additional costs in many markets are hindering a recovery. “Our members are telling us that more buyers are looking at homes but are slow in signing contracts, and that’s contributing to the weakness in pending home sales,” he said. “In many cases buyers are waiting for greater access to affordable credit, especially in higher cost areas, but some are disappointed with what appears to be unnecessarily restrictive lending requirements. The good news this week is there is some discussion toward relaxing some of the burdensome lending practices.”

The PHSI in the Northeast jumped 12.5 percent in March to 80.8 but remains 15.4 percent below a year ago. In the South, the index slipped 0.1 percent to 84.9 and is 26.7 percent lower than March 2007. The index in the West declined 1.4 percent in March to 91.2 and is 9.5 percent below a year ago. In the Midwest, the index fell 10.4 percent in March to 74.1 and is 22.3 percent below March 2007.

Existing-home sales are projected to rise from an annual pace of 4.95 million in the first quarter to 5.82 million in the fourth quarter. For all of 2008, existing-home sales are likely to total 5.39 million, and then rise 6.1 percent to 5.72 million next year. “Although more than half of local markets are expected to see price growth this year, the aggregate existing-home price will decline 2.4 percent in 2008, driven by a relatively few markets that are very oversupplied,” Yun said. The median price is forecast at $213,700 this year before rising 4.1 percent to $222,600 in 2009.

Some areas already are seeing sales increases, underscoring that all real estate is local. In March, unpublished snapshot data shows sales in Bakersfield, Calif., and Jackson, Miss., were higher than a year ago. At the same time, price gains were noted in markets such as Buffalo-Niagara Falls, and Cedar Rapids, Iowa. On May 13, NAR will report first-quarter data on metropolitan area home prices, covering about 150 metro areas, and state home sales.

"Although some market adjustments are necessary, a downward overshooting of the housing market would cause unnecessary loss in economic output, income and jobs," Yun said. "It is critical to stimulate housing demand by inducing fence sitters back into the market. A home buyer tax credit on any home purchase would accomplish that."

New-home sales are expected to fall 30.9 percent to 536,000 this year before rising 10.1 percent to 590,000 in 2009. Housing starts, including multifamily units, will probably drop 29.5 percent to 955,000 in 2008, and then rise 1.3 percent to 967,000 next year. The median new-home price is estimated to fall 3.7 percent to $238,000 this year, and then rise 5.4 percent in 2009 to $250,900.

The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is likely to rise gradually to 6.2 percent by the end of the year, and then average 6.3 percent in 2009. NAR’s housing affordability index is expected to rise 10 percentage points to 127.0 for all of 2008.

Growth in the U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) should be 1.5 percent this year and 2.3 percent in 2009. The unemployment rate is projected to average 5.3 percent in 2008 and 5.5 percent next year.

Inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index, is seen at 3.4 percent this year and 2.2 percent in 2009. Inflation-adjusted disposable personal income is forecast to grow 1.2 percent in 2008 and 3.0 percent next year.

Source: National Association of REALTORs Media Release

My May 2008 Real Estate Newsletter is Now Available For Download

My May 2008 Real Estate Newsletter is now available for download as a PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file. Just click on the following link: Download may_2008_newsletter.pdf

If you would like to receive these newsletters automatically in the future each month, just send me an e-mail and let me know. I would be glad to add you to my e-mailing list. You can e-mail me at: jelwell1@tampabay.rr.com

I also invite you to visit my my website where I think you will find a lot of useful information. To get there just click on the following link: www.jelwell.century21bnr.com

Where to Find Cheap Gas in Zephyrhills, Florida, and the United States

This is a little off the topic of this blog, but as a real estate agent I put a lot of miles on my car and a lot of gas in its tank. Many people who are house hunting do the same. If you would like to find where the cheapest gas is in your area, you can click on the following link: http://www.motortrend.com/gas_prices

You will be taken to the Motor Trend website where all you have to do is enter your zip code, and a list of gasoline vendors will appear with the prices that they are are charging. Hope this helps you out. Prices have just gone insane during the past two years haven't they??? Glad someone is getting rich!

Feel free to contact me if you have any real estate needs. You can call me at: 813-783-4444 or e-mail me at:  jelwell1@tampabay.rr.com.  I also invite you to visit my webpage at: www.jelwell.century21bnr.com

NAR: Existing-Home Sales to Stablize Before Upturn in Second Half of 2008

WASHINGTON, April 08, 2008 - Little change is expected in existing-home sales over the next few months, before improving notably during the second half of the year, according to the latest forecast by the National Association of Realtors®.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said the market will come into clearer focus this summer. “Existing home sales could start to show a sustained increase within a few months, unless there are some additional economic problems or excessive inflationary pressure,” he said. “We’re looking for essentially stable sales in the near term, before higher mortgage loan limits translate into more sales in high-cost markets. The wider access to affordable credit should increase sales activity notably this summer as pent-up demand begins to be met.”

The Pending Home Sales Index,* a forward-looking indicator based on contracts signed in February, slipped 1.9 percent to 84.6 from an upwardly revised reading of 86.2 in January, and was 21.4 percent lower than the February 2007 index of 107.6. “The slip in pending home sales implies we’re not out of the woods yet, though an era of successive deep sales declines appears to be over,” Yun said.

The PHSI in the Northeast rose 3.2 percent in February to 71.8 but remains 25.4 percent below a year ago. In the Midwest, the index declined 3.7 percent to 82.7 and is 17.4 percent lower than February 2007. The index in the South fell 5.5 percent in February to 85.0 and is 30.3 percent below a year ago. In the West, the index rose 2.1 percent in February to 95.8 but is 6.1 percent below February 2007.

Existing-home sales are likely to rise from an annual pace of 4.9 million in the first quarter to 5.9 million in the fourth quarter. With relatively weak activity in the first part of the year, existing-home sales for all of 2008 are forecast at 5.39 million, increasing 6.6 percent to 5.74 million in 2009.

“Exceptionally weak home sales related to jumbo loans problems will depress home prices in the first half of the year, but steady liquidity improvements in the conforming jumbo-loan market will help prices recover in the second half of the year,” Yun said. The aggregate existing-home price will probably ease by 1.4 percent to a median of $215,800 for all of 2008 before rising 3.7 percent to $223,800 next year.

Yun noted that there will continue to be wide variations in regional housing market conditions. “Some parts of the country that can expect improvement include the Northeastern region and the oil-patch states of Texas, Oklahoma, Louisiana and Arkansas,” he said. With lower interest rates and flat home prices in many areas, NAR’s housing affordability index is forecast to rise 14 percentage points to 127.0 in 2008.

New-home sales are projected to fall 25.7 percent to 576,000 in 2008 before rising 4.6 percent to 602,000 next year. Housing starts, including multifamily units, are estimated to drop 26.3 percent to 999,000 this year, and slip another 0.5 percent to 994,000 in 2009. The median new-home price will probably fall 3.6 percent to $238,400 in 2008, and then rise 4.0 percent next year to $247,800.

The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage, which has fluctuated recently, should average 5.8 percent in the second and third quarters, but trend up to an average of 6.3 percent in 2009.

“The economy will not grow in first half of the year,” Yun said. “However, the combination of recent fiscal stimulus enactment and the lagged impact of monetary policy will help jump start the economy in the second half.” Growth in the U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to be 1.4 percent in 2008 and 2.4 percent next year. The unemployment rate is forecast to average 5.4 percent this year and 5.6 percent in 2009.

Inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index, is projected at 3.4 percent in 2008 and 2.2 percent next year. Inflation-adjusted disposable personal income is likely to grow 1.2 percent this year and 3.0 percent in 2009.

Source: National Association of REALTORs Press Release

Flooring That You Should Be Wary Of

Yesterday was the day of the week when all of the area agents go on "tour" to see the new listings that have come on the market. Lately there have been fewer and fewer additions and this may be a good sign that the inventory is getting smaller rather than growing by leaps and bounds like it had been a year ago. Some good news for sellers, perhaps.

Anyway, I went in one home that looked very attractive from the outside. It had 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, a two-car garage, and was reasonably (though not cheaply) priced. As I entered the home it looked spacious and attractive from the front door. Not bad, I thought. However, when I stepped off the ceramic tile that was just inside the door and placed my foot on what appeared to be a wooden floor, I was disappointed. The surface of the floor had bulged nearly an inch and had a hollow feel. It felt funny to walk on it and did not have a solid feel to it.

I was sorry to see that the owners had put down a floor that most people would call a laminate floor. Some agents mistakenly call this a "wood laminate floor". However, there was no wood in it, but just a plastic picture of wood placed over a thin layer of a masonite material that was probably no more than 1/4 inches thick. Since it is a "floating floor" and is not glued down it expands and contracts, often causing high and low spots. When you walk on it it can feel very funny and sound even worse. Masonite is the material you often see in garages as pegboard. It is usually smooth on one side and kind of fuzzy on the other. I am not sure if this floor had masonite or something like it underneath, but it sure felt how masonite would feel if you were walking on it. Try walking on a piece of masonite, pegboard, wall panelling, or thin plywood that has not been glued down. You will get the idea of what I am talking about.

Also on concrete slab floors like we have here in Florida, I would worry that aside from the natural expansion and contraction caused by temperature, humidity coming from the slab would also cause swelling. The seams also seem to always be more apparent and could offer another route where spilled liquids could get underneath the floor and do damage.

There are real wood laminate floors where there is actually a thin layer of real wood, whether it be maple, oak, teak, etc on top of a thicker slab of plywood or oriented strand board. These are much more stable, sound better, last longer, and just seem more like real wood. You readily note the difference when you step on them. Of course they cost more since instead of being covered with a material not unlike that of your plastic countertop, they are partly composed of real quality wood. But think of them as an investment. Just like ceramic tile will add more value to your home than a vinyl floor will, a good wood laminate or solid wood floor will do the same thing. Of course, if you really want to spend the big bucks you can have solid wood floors installed. But they are pricey.

So if you are thinking of putting down laminate flooring, check out the possibilities VERY carefully. Visit the homes of friends and get their recommendations. Your home is definitely a big investment and you do not want to add anything to it that would make people think you had used second class materials when making changes. Making a wrong decision here can really turn potential buyers off and send them running to the competition across the street.

Showing Your Own Home? - That Could Be a Dangerous Proposition!

A while ago I posted some questions that you should ask any potential listing agents you were considering employing. An event yesterday highlited something that I mentioned in that post, and I felt it was worth repeating here. It deals with your safety and that of your loved ones, especially if you are considering selling your own home or using a "reduced service" brokerage.

Yesterday, in Lakeland, Florida, about 15 miles from here, a real estate agent went to a home to meet with what she thought were potential customers. Upon entering the home she was overpowered and threatened with a utility knife. The robbers tied the agent up and then stole her credit cards and her 2006 Nissan. Needless to say, the agent was probably scared out of her wits and will be so for some time to come. Police are currently looking for the two men who accosted this poor woman. They are considered armed and dangerous.

I wish I could say this was an isolated incident. However, just this past March 7th, in St. Petersburg, FL (again, not all that far away from here) a man posed as a potential home buyer. After looking at several homes with the agent, he hit her on the head with a gun and threatened to kill her. Her ATM and credit cards were stolen.

In a way, these 2 agents were lucky. In the past many agents have been murdered while trying to assist their customers. These two incidents took place near here, but these crimes happen all over the country.

So if you are selling your own home, be aware that the person knocking at the door may or may not be a legitimate buyer. If you are alone in your home you could find yourself in a very uncomfortable position. Once the "buyer" is inside your home, you are at a distinct disadvantage.

If you are using a "reduced service" brokerage find out if someone from their agency will be accompanying all buyers that visit your home, or will YOU be expected to show the home by yourself? Some companies do have agents that come out to take potential buyers through homes. However, there are many others that receive calls at their phone centers and then call you to inform you that a Mr. XYZ is coming to see your home at 3:00 PM. Keep in mind that the call centers have no way of knowing who this person is. It may be a good man looking for a home. However, it could be a not-so-good guy (or group of not-so-good guys) with something else on his mind. This can be an especially dangerous situation if the seller is someone who is more vulnerable than most. In my area we have a high percentage of individuals who would find it very difficult to defend themselves if someone should try to take advantage of them.

As I mentioned earlier, sometimes the objective is just to steal from you. Though that can be traumatic enough. But there will be some evil individuals out there that could do something much much worse. So be on your toes at all times, and make your home marketing decisions carefully and thoughtfully.

When you use a full-service agent, you will never have to show your home by yourself. You do not even have to be there at all. Either I  or a licensed colleague from my office or a cooperating office will be there to show your home. A much safer alternative for you and those you love.

For more information or questions about this topic please call me at: 813-783-4444 or e-mail me at: jelwell1@tampabay.rr.com

I also invite you to visit my my website where I think you will find a lot of useful information. To get there just click on the following link: www.jelwell.century21bnr.com

My April 2008 Real Estate Newsletter Is Now Available For Download

My April 2008 Real Estate Newsletter is now available for download as a PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file. Just click on the following link: Download April2008Newsletter.PDF

If you would like to receive these newsletters automatically in the future each month, just send me an e-mail and let me know. I would be glad to add you to my e-mailing list. You can e-mail me at: jelwell1@tampabay.rr.com

I also invite you to visit my my website where I think you will find a lot of useful information. To get there just click on the following link: www.jelwell.century21bnr.com

Economy Slows Florida Population Growth to Lowest Level in 30 Years

GAINESVILLE, Fla. — The bursting of Florida’s housing bubble and overall economy has also let the air out of the state’s famed population growth, which has shrunk to its lowest levels in three decades, according to the latest projections from the University of Florida.

“A tremendous slowdown is forecast over the next few years compared to what we’ve experienced during the last five years,” said Stan Smith, director of UF’s Bureau of Economic and Business Research. “The state has not experienced a decline of this magnitude since the mid-‘70s, when we were in a national recession.”

The Sunshine State is expected to add an average of only about 209,000 residents a year between 2007 and 2010, compared with annual increases of about 418,000 people between 2002 and 2006, he said.

Although Florida remains a major destination for retirees, far more young and middle-aged people move into the state to find work than their older counterparts arrive to retire, Smith said. But declining job opportunities have stanched the influx of younger people, he said.

“The vast majority of Florida’s population growth is due to migration, and during a recession the rate of job creation slows down in Florida,” he said.

The biggest group moving to the state during the last four or five decades has typically been those in their 20s and 30s, with those 65 and older accounting for only about 15 percent of in-migration, Smith said. But younger people in their 20s and 30s also make up the biggest share of those leaving the state, which is why Florida became the nation’s oldest state after World War II, he said.

Robust real estate markets and burgeoning construction fueled Florida’s growth from 2002 to 2006, just as it did during the boom years of 1971 to 1974, Smith said. In turn, the housing market’s decline dramatically curbed population growth after 2006, just as a national recession in the ‘70s sharply limited expansion between 1974 and 1977, he said.

Another reason growth typically slows during a recession in addition to the availability of fewer jobs is that people have difficulty selling their houses, which delays their move, he said.

“We’ve certainly seen a slowdown in economic growth nationally, and it’s even possible we may be in a recession right now, although we won’t know for sure until later this year,” he said.

Projections call for Florida’s population to return to more normal growth levels of about 317,000 a year between 2010 and 2020, similar to the 1980s and 1990s, Smith said. Although there also was a slowdown in growth during recessions in the 1980s and 1990s, it was nowhere near the steep decline of the 1970s or that which is taking place now, he said.

“It’s really sort of a boom-and-bust pattern that we have seen in Florida,” Smith said. “The years between 2002 and 2006 were the biggest in terms of absolute increases since the early ‘70s, and then just as we experienced in the ‘70s we are going from a period of high- to low-growth numbers.”

The county projected to grow the fastest in percentage terms between 2007 and 2010, Lafayette in Florida’s Big Bend, is something of an anomaly because it owes its top spot to prison construction, Smith said. It is predicted to grow from 8,215 in 2007 to 9,200 in 2010, he said.

Otherwise, many of the high-growth counties are the same as in past years, he said.

Flagler, which was the fastest-growing county between 2000 and 2007, jumping from 49,832 to an estimated 93,568, is expected to continue to expand at a rapid rate, to 103,500 by 2010, Smith said. Its coastal location, proximity to Jacksonville and relatively low cost of living, as well as the presence of the large Palm Coast development, contribute to its high ranking, he said.

Other rapidly growing counties are Sumter, which owes its surge in part to prison expansion and the increasing number of residents at The Villages retirement community, and Osceola County, which receives spillover from nearby Orlando.

In terms of absolute numbers, the counties expected to make the biggest gains between 2007 and 2010 are Miami-Dade, from 2,462,292 to 2,512,300; followed by Orange, from 1,105,603 to 1,154,200; and Hillsborough, from 1,192,861 to 1,234,900.

Source: University of Florida Media Release

Florida's Existing Home Sales Remain Slow in February 2008

ORLANDO, Fla., March 24, 2008 – Turmoil in the mortgage market continued to impact Florida’s housing sector in February. Statewide, sales of existing single-family homes totaled 8,310 last month while 11,132 homes sold in February 2007 for a decrease of 25 percent in the year-to-year comparison, according to the Florida Association of Realtors® (FAR).

According to the latest forecast by the National Association of Realtors® (NAR), the volume of existing-home sales is expected to hold steady through late spring, with a gradual recovery during the second half of the year as the mortgage situation improves in high-cost areas. NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun says, “The higher loan limits for both FHA and conventional loans will increase consumer choice and provide greater access to lower interest rate mortgages in high-cost regions. Therefore, a notable rise in home sales can be anticipated in the second half of the year.”

Florida’s median sales price for existing single-family homes last month was $198,900; a year ago, it was $237,000 for a 16 percent decrease. The median is the midpoint; half the homes sold for more, half for less. In February 2003, the statewide median sales price for single-family homes was $140,500, an increase of about 41.6 percent over the five-year-period, according to FAR records.

The national median sales price for existing single-family homes in January 2008 was $198,700, down 5.1 percent from a year earlier, according to NAR. In California, the statewide median resales price was $430,370 in January; in Massachusetts, it was $321,000; in Maryland, it was $286,520; and in New York, it was $240,000.

Sales of existing condominiums in Florida also decreased last month, with a total of 2,765 condos sold statewide compared to 3,375 in February 2007 for an 18 percent decline, according to FAR. The statewide median sales price for condos last month was $175,600, down 20 percent from February 2007’s condo median price of $218,900. NAR reported the national median existing condo price was $220,400 in January 2008.

Last month, interest rates for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 5.92 percent, down from the average rate of 6.29 percent in February 2007, according to Freddie Mac. FAR’s sales figures reflect closings, which typically occur 30 to 90 days after sales contracts are written.

Among the state’s larger markets, the West Palm Beach-Boca Raton Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) reported 401 existing homes sold last month compared to 560 homes sold a year ago for a 28 percent decrease. The market's median sales price for homes was $344,600; it was $374,300 in February 2007 for a 8 percent decrease. A total of 438 existing condos changed hands in the MSA last month, down 5 percent from the 462 condos sold the previous year. The existing condo median sales price in February was $159,300; a year ago, it was $209,600 for a 24 percent decrease.

Says John J. Mike, chairman of the Realtors Association of the Palm Beaches and a sales associate with Prudential Florida WCI Realty, “Our members are reporting that activity levels have picked up in recent weeks. The softening of prices has certainly been appealing to buyers who were on the fence about entering the housing market. In addition, people are beginning to discover the reality of Amendment 1, particularly where portability of their property tax savings are concerned.”

Among the state’s smaller markets, the Punta Gorda MSA reported a total of 201 homes sold in February compared to 216 homes a year ago for a 7 percent decrease. The existing home median sales price was $151,300; a year ago, it was $201,100 for a 25 percent decrease. A total of 24 existing condos sold in the MSA last month compared to 30 condos the previous February for a 20 percent decrease. The market’s existing condo median price was $110,000; a year ago, it was $136,700 for a decrease of 20 percent.

Bill Dryburgh, president of the Punta Gorda-Port Charlotte-North Port Association of Realtors and a sales associate with Coldwell Banker Residential LLC, says the area’s waterfront and unspoiled scenic beauty continue to attract new residents. “The recent action taken by the Federal Reserve will help stabilize the mortgage market, which in turn will help the housing market,” he says. “I believe we’re also starting to see some movement in sales activity due to the passage of Amendment 1 and its portability provision.”

Source: Florida Association of REALTORs Media Release

For more information or questions about this topic please call me at: 813-783-4444 or e-mail me at: jelwell1@tampabay.rr.com

I also invite you to visit my my website where I think you will find a lot of useful information. To get there just click on the following link: www.jelwell.century21bnr.com

A Bit of Good News! National Association of REALTORs Says: Existing Home Sales Rise In February

WASHINGTON, March 24, 2008 - Sales of existing homes increased in February and remain within a fairly stable range, according to the National Association of Realtors®.

Existing-home sales – including single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – rose 2.9 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate (1) of 5.03 million units in February from a pace of 4.89 million in January, but remain 23.8 percent below the 6.60 million-unit level in February 2007. The sales pace has been in a fairly narrow range since last September.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said the gain is encouraging. “We’re not expecting a notable gain in existing-home sales until the second half of this year, but the improvement is another sign that the market is stabilizing,” he said. “Buyers taking advantage of higher loan limits for both FHA and conventional mortgages will unleash some pent-up demand. As inventories are drawn down, prices in many markets should go positive later this year.”

The national median existing-home price (2) for all housing types was $195,900 in February, down 8.2 percent from a year earlier when the median was $213,500. Because the slowdown in sales from a year ago is greater in high-cost areas, there is a downward pull to the national median with relatively fewer sales in higher priced markets.

Home prices within metropolitan areas are more telling. The most recent data shows roughly half of the metro areas in the U.S. with price increases, with healthy gains in markets such as Oklahoma City and Trenton, N.J. “In other areas such as Sacramento, a rapid price decline has induced buyers to come into the market and sales are now rising,” Yun said. “The relationship between home prices, interest rates and income has improved to the point where buyers are more serious about making offers.”

According to Freddie Mac, the national average commitment rate for a 30-year, conventional, fixed-rate mortgage rose to 5.92 percent in February from 5.76 percent in January; the rate was 6.29 percent in February 2007.

NAR President Richard F. Gaylord, a broker with RE/MAX Real Estate Specialists in Long Beach, Calif., said that negotiation and knowledge are even more important in the current market. “Consumers need to be aware of local market conditions and comparable sales prices to have a clear picture of a home’s value,” he said. “Realtors® understanding of local markets, negotiating expertise, and transaction experience are invaluable to both buyers and sellers, today as much as ever.”

Total housing inventory fell 3.0 percent at the end of February to 4.03 million existing homes available for sale, which represents a 9.6-month supply (3) at the current sales pace, down from a 10.2-month supply in January.

Single-family home sales increased 2.8 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.47 million in February from an upwardly revised 4.35 million in January, but are 22.9 percent below 5.80 million-unit level a year ago. The median existing single-family home price was $193,900 in February, down 8.7 percent from February 2007.

Existing condominium and co-op sales rose 3.7 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 560,000 units in February from a downwardly revised 540,000 in January, and are 29.7 percent below the 797,000-unit pace in February 2007. The median existing condo price (4) was $211,700 in February, which is 4.9 percent lower than a year ago.

Regionally, existing-home sales in the Northeast jumped 11.3 percent to an annual pace of 890,000 in February, but are 26.4 percent below February 2007. The median price in the Northeast was $264,800, up 0.4 percent from a year ago.

Existing-home sales in the Midwest rose 2.5 percent in February to a level of 1.24 million but are 19.5 percent below a year ago. The median price in the Midwest was $143,900, which is 7.1 percent lower than February 2007.

In the South, existing-home sales increased 2.1 percent to an annual rate of 1.99 million in February but are 22.0 percent below February 2007. The median price in the South was $163,400, down 8.6 percent from a year ago.

Existing-home sales in the West slipped 1.1 percent to an annual rate of 920,000 in February, and are 29.2 percent below a year ago. The median price in the West was $290,400, down 13.4 percent from February 2007.

Source: National Association of REALTORs Press Release

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index Declines Almost 12 Points

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, which had declined sharply in February, fell further in March. The Index now stands at 64.5 (1985=100), down from 76.4 in February. The Expectations Index declined to 47.9 from 58.0. The Present Situation Index decreased to 89.2 from 104.0 in February.

The Consumer Confidence Survey is based on a representative sample of 5,000 U.S. households. The monthly survey is conducted for The Conference Board by TNS. TNS is the world's largest custom research company. The cutoff date for March's preliminary results was March 18th.

Says Lynn Franco, Director of The Conference Board Consumer Research Center: "Consumers' confidence in the state of the economy continues to fade and the Index remains at a five-year low (March 2003, 61.4). The decline in the Present Situation Index implies that the pace of growth in recent months has weakened even further. Looking ahead, consumers' outlook for business conditions, the job market and their income prospects is quite pessimistic and suggests further weakening may be on the horizon. The Expectations Index, in fact, is now at a 35-year low (Dec. 1973, 45.2), levels not seen since the Oil Embargo and Watergate."

Consumers' assessment of present-day conditions weakened further in March. Those claiming business conditions are "bad" increased to 25.4 percent from 21.3 percent, while those claiming business conditions are "good" declined to 15.4 percent from 19.1 percent. Consumers' appraisal of the job market was also more pessimistic than last month. Those saying jobs are "hard to get" rose to 25.1 percent from 23.4 percent, while those claiming jobs are "plentiful" decreased to 18.8 percent from 21.5 percent.

Consumers' short-term expectations also deteriorated further in March. Those expecting business conditions to worsen over the next six months increased to 25.4 percent from 21.6 percent, while those anticipating business conditions to improve declined to 8.1 percent from 9.7 percent in February.

The outlook for the labor market was also more pessimistic. Consumers expecting fewer jobs in the months ahead increased to 29.0 percent from 28.0 percent, while those anticipating more jobs declined to 7.7 percent from 8.9 percent. The proportion of consumers expecting their incomes to increase declined to 14.9 percent from 18.0 percent.

Source: March 2008 Consumer Confidence Index - The Conference Board

For more information or questions about this topic please call me at: 813-783-4444 or e-mail me at: jelwell1@tampabay.rr.com

I also invite you to visit my my website where I think you will find a lot of useful information. To get there just click on the following link: www.jelwell.century21bnr.com

Florida Association of REALTORs Advises That You Protect Your Home While On Vacation

ORLANDO, Fla., March 12, 2008 -- Is spring fever prompting you to head for the beaches or some other vacation getaway? If you’re planning to travel during the spring holidays this year, you can help protect your home while you’re away by following these tips from the Florida Association of Realtors® (FAR):

• Make it look like you're home. Install timers on interior lights so they turn on and off periodically. Many timers cost less than $25. Some more costly products are capable of varying the time that your lights turn on. Also consider leaving your radio on and tuned to an all-news or talk show station.
• Disconnect and remove all exterior electrical decorations before you leave to reduce the chance of fire and theft. Install exterior lights that are controlled by motion sensors to make your home a more difficult target for prowlers.
• Discontinue your newspaper delivery temporarily. Be sure to give several days notice so your order can be processed in time.
• Ask someone to collect any free papers or sales materials left near your house. When fliers and papers are left on a driveway day after day, it's a sure sign that no one is home.
• Have the post office hold your mail. This can be initiated by calling the U.S. Postal Service at 1-800-275-8777 and listening to the option for putting a vacation hold on your mail. You can make arrangements up to 30 days in advance of your vacation; at minimum, two days will be needed to process your request. Or you can go to the Postal Service Web site at https://dunsapp.usps.gov/HoldMail.jsp and follow the instructions.
• Ask a friend or neighbor to park a car in your driveway occasionally and keep an eye on your place. If your neighborhood is patrolled by police, give the police your schedule so they’ll watch for suspicious activity; if there’s a crime-watch program, notify the person in charge.
• If you have an alarm that is monitored, tell the alarm company you will be away. If possible, provide a phone number where you can be reached.
• If you’re going to be away for two weeks or more, have a friend or lawn service mow the grass.

Before traveling for spring break, take these simple steps to help protect your property.

The Florida Association of Realtors®, the voice for real estate in Florida, provides programs, services, continuing education, research and legislative representation to its 150,000 members in 67 boards/associations.

Source: Florida Association of REALTORs Press Release

Use Reputable Companies or Lenders If You Are Facing Foreclosure

I do not know how it is in other states, but here in Florida you cannot drive down any road without seeing handwritten signs like this one promising to take care of all of your financial woes. What are people thinking when they call these people??? Is there any doubt that the companies that put up signs like this are less than on the "up and up". Even if they had signs printed, most reliable companies would not advertise this way. Would you pick a doctor using a sign like this?  I would tend to doubt the sanity of someone that did. Your health is too important, and so is your financial security!

In many cases if you get involved with these companies you will end up in a worse situation than you now find yourself in. There are many many legitimate companies out there, including your own lender, who will do what they can to help you avoid foreclosure if it is at all possible. Your local REALTOR, like myself, can also often point you in the right direction.

My advice is to ignore roadside solicitations and stick with companies or professionals that you know. You can also get recommendations from friends and neighbors. The US Department of Housing and Urban Development can also offer you suggestions. You can reach their site by clicking here: HUD Advice For Avoiding Foreclosure

If you do decide to call one of the numbers on these handwritten signs (and I still think it is a bad idea), at least take another ten minutes to call your local Better Business Bureau and see if 1. They have a record of this company and 2. Do they have any outstanding complaints against them.

Quality established companies are not going to use handwritten or printed stick-in signs to solicit business for themselves. A temporary sign could be an indicator of a TEMPORARY company. If I were you, I would keep right on driving and find a company that can truly help make your situation better, not WORSE.

For more information or questions about this topic please call me at: 813-783-4444 or e-mail me at: jelwell1@tampabay.rr.com

I also invite you to visit my my website where I think you will find a lot of useful information. To get there just click on the following link: www.jelwell.century21bnr.com

 

Mobile Homes Selling Briskly in Zephyrhills and in the Rest of Florida

One of the agents in our CENTURY 21 office always says that "In January buyers kick the tires on the vacation homes here, and then make their decisions to buy in February, March, and April". That seems to be holding true this year as well. As a plus for buyers, this year there are many more homes on the market, and sellers are pricing their homes more reasonably and are often willing to negotiate.

If you are looking for a vacation home or permanent residence in Zephyrhills, Dade City, Wesley Chapel, North Tampa, North Lakeland, or the general Pasco County area of Florida, do not hesitate to contact me. I can e-mail you the most recent listings directly from the MLS. Often listings from other sites are outdated, sometimes by several months. I can also set up an auto-search for you so you will be notified immediately as soon as a new listing comes on the market.

You can call me at: 813-783-4444 or e-mail me at: jelwell1@tampabay.rr.com

I also invite you to visit my my website where I think you will find a lot of useful information. To get there just click on the following link: www.jelwell.century21bnr.com

Homeowners Finally Competing Head-to-Head With Developers/Builders on Home Prices

For several months now you have heard me mention again and again how many home sellers were asking for more money per square foot than the developers were. It made little sense to me that a buyer would pay $134/sq ft when a developer would sell them a brand new home for $100/sq ft. Yet sellers would stubbornly hold on to the dream of hitting a jackpot while the developers sold off their inventories.

Now we are seeing that the light of reality has finally begun to shine on many sellers and they are giving some of the developers a run for their money. The builders are limited to the costs of constructing a home in today's economic circumstances. Resellers, however, are limited only by the price they paid for their homes. And if they purchased then several years ago, they can undercut the prices of the builders and still make a profit.

As an example, in our area we have a large subdivision called Lake Bernadette. It was started in the 1980's but construction continues to this day in various parts of it. I recently pulled up the MLS listings that were currently on the market. Of the 56 that came up as "active", half of them were at, or very close to, $100 per square foot. A few were substantially under that amount. This tells me that homeowners are not telling their agents to be more aggressive in their pricing and are offering their properties for realistic amounts that compete well with the builder/developers.

What also helps the homeowners at this time is the cut-back in new construction that is taking place. We have several subdivisions near our office that have streets, lights, stop signs, etc, and not a single home under construction. They have sat this way for many months. This lack of of additional inventory each month can only help those sellers who want to move their homes.

So if you home has been languishing on the market for months, or in some cases years, take a lesson from your neighbors who are going after those buyers who will pass you by on the way to the homes that are reasonably priced.

For more information or questions about this topic please call me at: 813-783-4444 or e-mail me at: jelwell1@tampabay.rr.com

I also invite you to visit my my website where I think you will find a lot of useful information. To get there just click on the following link: www.jelwell.century21bnr.com

My March 2008 Florida Real Estate Newsletter Is Now Available for Download

My March 2008 real estate newsletter is now available for download as a PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file. Just click on the following link: Download March2008newsletter.PDF

If you would like to receive these newsletters automatically in the future each month, just send me an e-mail and let me know. I would be glad to add you to my e-mailing list. You can e-mail me at: jelwell1@tampabay.rr.com

I also invite you to visit my my website where I think you will find a lot of useful information. To get there just click on the following link: www.jelwell.century21bnr.com

Closing Up Your Vacation Home

Here in Zephyrhills, Florida and around the south and southwest, winter visitors will soon begin to close up their homes for the summer months when they will be at their other residences or traveling. A couple of years ago I read a very good list of things to do to protect your home during this period. I contacted the author, and he was kind enough to let me pass these ideas on to you. If you click on the link below, you can download a PDF Adobe file of the article that you will be able to read. I hope it will be useful to you.

To download the file, click here: Download preparevaction_home_for_summer.pdf

For more information or questions about this topic please call me at: 813-783-4444 or e-mail me at: jelwell1@tampabay.rr.com

I also invite you to visit my my website where I think you will find a lot of useful information. To get there just click on the following link: www.jelwell.century21bnr.com

Fishing = Good, but Phishing = BAD

A couple of weeks ago one of our new participants on the local online bulletin board I offer called me and was concerned when the computer sent him an authentication e-mail with his password in it. He was afraud that his security may have been impaired in some way. I assured him that this was not the case since the message was sent from my computer to only the e-mail address that he had entered when he registered. I believe that helped allieve his main worries.

However, in our discussion, he mentioned that his brother had a Pay Pal account and somehow someone had been able to get access to the money in that account and his brother had been caused some problems due to this. This may be why he was so concerned about his password being sent via e-mai. Some of you may not know, but Pay Pal is company that is used to help people transfer money to other people when they buy things on sites like E-Bay, etc.

A few days after I had spoken with that man, I got a message from Pay Pal warning me about a problem that had occurred with my account and that they needed me to send them my account number, username, and password immediately or they would inactivate my account. I have never had an account with Pay Pal and that makes this e-mail an example of PHISHING. It was pretty obvious in this case since they spelled Pay PaI with a capital I instead of a lower case l at the end.

Now when you are really fishing you go to a lake or river, bait your hook, and cast it into the water. You do not expect to catch all the fish in the lake, but to lure a couple by your hook that will bite it and be caught. Success!

Phishing works similarly, but in this case, you and your money are the prey the Phisher wants to catch. Here is how he does it.

First the Phisher, who may be anywhere in the world, sends out millions and millions of e-mails that look like the come from big companies, usually banks, credit unions, stock brokers, Pay Pal, credit card companies, etc. The pages you see will look EXACTLY like the real bank website. He knows up front that 99% of the people who receive these messages will trash them, but if even just 1% open them and just a few of those people send him personal information, he can illegally make thousands of dollars. Here is how it works.

There will be a message that says that the company has discovered some unusual activity on your account and to protect you they will freeze your funds until you provide them with some confirmation information. ALL A BIG LIE!

You will be asked to click on a link where you will find boxes where they want you to put your username, account numbers, and passwords or PINs (personal identification numbers). DO NOT DO IT! Within seconds after giving then your personal information you will see purchases made in Africa, Russia, China, Brazil, the USA and all around the world. The crooks will be doing all they can to spend your money as fast as possible.

What can you do to protect yourself?

1. First, understand that banks, the electric company, credit card companies, etc will never ask you for usernames, account numbers, and passwords via emails on the internet.
2. If the e-mail is from a company that you do not even recognize and have never done business with, you can be sure that they is a phishing scheme. If you do not have an account with SunTrust Bank, why would they ask you about your account?? You do not have one. Dump this message right in the trash.
3. Even if the e-mail is from a bank or company that you do have business with, ignore it completely. Definitely do not send them the information they are asking for. If you are a worrier and want to be 100% sure that no problem exists, look on your latest bank statement or in the yellow pages for the phone number of the bank's local branch and call them personally. DO NOT use any of the contact numbers in the e-mail. They could be fakes that go directly to the crooks.

Again, never, never, never, give out your personal information in response to e-mail messages that you receive. These are nearly always scams and if you take the bait you will quickly find your wallet and bank accounts a lot emptier!

For more information or questions about this topic please call me at: 813-783-4444 or e-mail me at: jelwell1@tampabay.rr.com

I also invite you to visit my my website where I think you will find a lot of useful information. To get there just click on the following link: www.jelwell.century21bnr.com

State of Florida Offers Site for Elder Affairs

Our state now has a site for Elder Affairs. This site covers matters involving relocation to Florida for retirement or vacations, health issues, elder abuse, and a plethora of other topics of interest to many of us. To reach this site, simply click on the following link: http://elderaffairs.state.fl.us/

I hope you will find the site useful to you and your families.

For more information or questions about this topic please call me at: 813-783-4444 or e-mail me at: jelwell1@tampabay.rr.com

I also invite you to visit my my website where I think you will find a lot of useful information. To get there just click on the following link: www.jelwell.century21bnr.com

OLDER BUYERS SEEKING TO DOWNSIZE—BUT NOT BY MUCH

National Association of Home Builder Study Finds Design, Desire to Be Near Family Drives Decision to Move

February 20, 2008 - With the 55-plus population expected to exceed 85 million by 2014, the nation’s home builders have been increasingly catering to the unique needs and interests of mature homebuyers, according to a new study that was released last week by the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) in conjunction with their International Builders’ Show ® (IBS) in Orlando, Fla.

According to the data compiled by NAHB’s 50+ Housing Council, more than a quarter of a million people will opt to buy new housing in communities specifically built for those ages 55 or better, and more than 100,000 units constructed in 2008 will be targeted to this growing niche market. The report, Profile of the 50+ Housing Market, also dispels some common perceptions about the older home buyer: first, “downsizing” is a relative term and, second, the vast majority of these buyers won’t be relocating to the Sun Belt.

“Our data shows that 55+ home buyers may be ‘downsizing,’ but not by much,” said Paul Emrath, NAHB’s lead researcher on the study. “The average home in an active adult community still includes more than two bedrooms and more than 2,000 square feet of living space.”

The report found that homes in age-restricted active adult communities were only slightly smaller than other homes purchased by 55+ home buyers in both square footage and the total number of rooms, including bedrooms and bathrooms, but were less likely to have a specialty room such as a den or library. In addition, the majority of age-restricted housing buyers (59 percent) indicated they felt they were moving into a better home than their previous one, although fewer than half (41 percent) said their new home cost more than the old one.

“These boomer buyers may be scaling back in their home size, but they aren’t willing to sacrifice quality,” said Robert Tippets, immediate past chairman of the NAHB 50+ Housing Council and an active adult builder from Utah. “They’re still looking for new homes that are well-designed and have many of the latest bells and whistles,” he says. “What they are ‘downsizing’ is the maintenance that comes with owning the typical home with the big yard.”

According to the American Housing Survey data that NAHB’s researchers analyzed, most buyers (77 percent) chose a new home in a particular age-restricted community because they liked the home’s look and overall design, while the top reasons they chose the community was the design (49 percent) and to be close to friends and relatives (28 percent). More than half of all new buyers in 55+ communities move within the same county as they currently live.

The report also suggests that new home buyers in this niche market are not as adversely affected by the current troubles in the mortgage market. Fewer than half of the customers who bought a new home in an age-qualified active adult community needed to take out a mortgage. Of those who did, the study found, the loan-to-value ratio was under 50 percent. Nearly all home buyers in these communities who made a downpayment reported that the downpayment came from the sale of a previous home.

“These consumers have substantial equity in their existing homes and greater accumulated wealth,” said Mark Stemen, senior vice president with K. Hovnanian’s active adult division in the mid-Atlantic and a member of NAHB’s 50+ Housing Council. “They are discretionary buyers and their purchases are very much driven by a desire for the lifestyle these types of communities offer,” Stemens said, noting that they are also buyers who are more likely than other groups to buy a new or custom home.

How they might be affected by the slower housing market, he said, is in the selling of their existing homes. Despite that, however, Stemen remains bullish on the active adult segment of the housing industry. “Given the strong demographics of the baby boom generation, the active adult buyer will continue to be a very important housing consumer for a long time to come,” he said.

Source: National Association of Home Builders Press Release

Florida Association of REALTORS: Florida's Housing Market for 4th Quarter 2007: Sales Activity Remained Soft

ORLANDO, Fla., Feb. 14, 2008 –In fourth quarter 2007, Florida's housing sector continued to report high inventory levels of homes for sale in many markets, median prices edging down and sales activity levels that reflect the impact of tighter lending standards and on-the-fence buyers.

Statewide, sales of single-family existing homes totaled 26,130 during the three-month period, a decrease of 31 percent compared to 37,879 homes sold during the same time a year earlier, according to the Florida Association of Realtors® (FAR).

The statewide existing-home median sales price was $216,000