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November 29, 2007

Freddie Mac: Another Nice Drop in Interest Rates. Now Lowest in TWO Years!

Down_arrow_2 Thursday 11/29/07,  Freddie Mac reported that the average mortgage interest rates for 30 and 15 year fixed-rate loans dropped again, by quite a bit, from last Thursday's averages. Nationally the average mortgage interest rate for 30 year fixed-rate mortgages was 6.10% (6.05% in the southeast), down from 6.20% a week ago. The average interest rate for 15 year fixed-rate mortgages was 5.73%, down from 5.83% last week. These are the lowest the averages have been in more than two years!

"Interest rates for US Treasury securities have been drifting lower this month over market concerns that the housing slump and stress in the credit markets could slow further economic growth", said a Freddie Mac spokesperson. That made it possible for mortgage interest rates to slip even lower this week.

It was also reported this week that nationwide house prices fell 4.95% during the 12 months ending in September 2007. Keep in mind that this is an average amount. Some areas saw much less of a price drop and others saw a greater declines.

As I mentioned last week, we now have a situation where prices have dropped significantly, and yet interest rates are also at historically low levels. Normally, either when one is low the other is high, and vice versa. At some point either the interest rates or the home prices will start going up. This may be the time for buyers who have been deferring making a move to finally give serious thought to purchasing a home in the near future.

Do keep in mind that we live in a very large and complex country. What happens in California is not necessarily what is happening in Florida. And what happens in Florida may be a far cry from what occurs in Michigan. Real estate is still very much a local issue.

If you want to learn more about Freddie Mac or see the details of their survey, go to: www.freddiemac.com  and click on the link for "Current Weekly Survey". They break down the survey by specific regions in the United States so you can see how your state compares to other parts of the country. They also explain the mission of Freddie Mac and offer a lot of useful information for consumers.

If you would like to speak with a lender you can find some at my website: www.jelwell.century21bnr.com . You can also speak with your own bank, credit union, or mortgage broker to see what your particular interest rate would be, should you decide to finance a home purchase.

November 28, 2007

University of Florida: Dip in Florida’s Consumer Confidence Likely to Hurt Holiday Retail Sales

Cash_register GAINESVILLE, Fla. — Florida’s consumer confidence dropped two points to 77 in November, portending lackluster sales for the holiday retail season, a new University of Florida study finds.

“The growing pessimism about U.S. economic conditions seems to be among all income levels,” said Chris McCarty, director of UF’s Survey Research Center at the Bureau of Economic and Business Research. “Overall we expect the holiday retail season to be weak compared to last year as consumers are cautious about spending too much. We expect growth in retail sales of no more than 3 percent and possibly much lower.”

With the continued decline in Florida’s housing market, consumers’ financial insecurity is increasing, he said.

Survey respondents were particularly pessimistic about U.S. economic conditions over the next year. That component of the index fell a steep 11 points to 62, in contrast to the index measuring perceptions of U.S. economic conditions over the next five years, which rose two points to 80.

“Florida consumers seem to understand the gravity of the fallout from the housing crisis and resulting credit crunch but they still believe in the long-term viability of the U.S. economy to turn this around,” McCarty said.

The housing crisis shows no signs of improving soon, with the consequences continuing to unfold, McCarty said. The downturn is having many indirect effects, in addition to hurting those who cannot sell their homes and those who have lost their homes to foreclosure, he said.

Lenders who resold loans or packaged mortgage debt in elaborate securities now face a backlash from investors, many of whom are international, McCarty said. This has created a shortage of credit, which previously fueled not only home loans but many other kinds of spending from corporations buying other corporations to individuals buying cars, he said.

Much of this financial activity is now on hold as investors, both domestic and international, wait to see how the situation plays out, he said.

“We expect the housing market to bottom out by the second quarter of 2008 at which time existing home prices will be low enough that some prospective buyers will make purchases,” he said. “However, 2005 prices are years away.”

This month’s drop in the overall confidence rate follows a two-point rise in October.

“We were a bit perplexed by the rise in confidence last month,” McCarty said. “It now appears that rise was a reaction to a short-term decline in gas prices early in October. Now that gas prices have gone up, as expected, confidence is at the same level as in September.”

Of the three remaining components making up the index this month, one fell, one rose and one remained the same. Perceptions of personal finances a year from now fell four points to 86, while perceptions of personal finances now compared with a year ago rose two points to 71. Perceptions of whether it is a good time to buy big-ticket items remained unchanged at 84.

Perceptions of personal finances showed a small improvement among low-income households, but a slight decline among middle and upper-income households, he said.

The research center conducts the Florida Consumer Attitude Survey monthly. Respondents are 18 or older and live in households telephoned randomly. The preliminary index for November was conducted from 475 responses.

Consumer confidence is designed to help predict buying patterns by measuring the mood of consumers toward purchasing. Although other economic indicators also predict buying patterns, consumer confidence tends to be available sooner. The index is benchmarked to 1966, so a value of 100 represents the same level of confidence for the year. The value of the index is in comparing changes over time rather than looking at an isolated month.

Writer - Cathy Keen

Source - Chris McCarty

Source: University of Florida Media Release


November 27, 2007

Don't Forget About Your Homestead Exemption for 2008 in Florida

Pasco_county As most Floridians are aware, or should be aware, there could be changes in how the Homestead Exemption and others will function in the future in Florida. We will not know for sure until after the start of the year when voters have their say during an election in January.

However, I wondered, what are homeowners supposed to do at this point in time since we are not sure what rules will apply next year? I called the county property appraiser's office here in Pasco County today, and they told me that homeowners who plan to make their home their permanent residence, or homestead, should apply for the exemption just has they have in the past. That means that they must close on the purchase of their next home before the end of 2007 and then file for their exempetion(s) by March 1, 2008.

At that point, whatever exemptions are in effect will apply to those persons who applied and got their homestead exemption. If the new rules are voted down, then you will get the same exemptions as we have had over the past several years. If the voters approve new regulations, then your declaration of homestead should ensure that you get the advantage of those new benefits.

The main thing is to be sure you apply in time. You have nothing to lose by declaring your homestead with the county. If you do not, you could be making a very costly mistake.

For more information or questions about this topic you can call me at: 813-783-4444 or e-mail me at: jelwell1@tampabay.rr.com

If you go to my website you will also find a menu button for local county Property Appraisers. To get there just click on the following link: www.jelwell.century21bnr.com  If you do find your county listed, just click on the link that will give you a list of all of the counties that exist in Florida. All of the sites will have information concerning Homestead Exemptions and also contact numbers if you wish to speak with someone in the appraiser's office. I am sure they will be happy to answer any questions that you may have. I have always found them to be very helpful.

Conference Board: Consumer Confidence Continues to Decline

November 27, 2007

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, which has been declining since the summer, declined further in November. The Index now stands at 87.3 (1985=100), down from 95.2 in October. The Present Situation Index decreased to 115.4 from 118.0 in October. The Expectations Index declined to 68.7 from 80.0.

The Consumer Confidence Survey is based on a representative sample of 5,000 U.S. households. The monthly survey is conducted for The Conference Board by TNS. TNS is the world's largest custom research company. The cutoff date for November's preliminary results was November 19th.

Says Lynn Franco, Director of The Conference Board Consumer Research Center: "This month's deterioration in confidence was due primarily to the sharp decline in the Expectations Index. Consumers' apprehension about the short-term outlook is being fueled by volatility in financial markets, rising prices at the pump and the likelihood of larger home heating bills this winter. In fact, consumers' inflation expectations have surpassed the spike experienced this spring and a larger percentage than last month expect stock prices to decline. The Present Situation Index, despite losing ground, still suggests the economy is expanding, albeit slowly. Despite this rather bleak outlook, consumers have not lost their holiday spirit and anticipate spending more on gifts this season than they did last Christmas."

Consumers' assessment of present conditions waned further in November. Those claiming conditions are "good" decreased to 22.3 percent from 23.2 percent. Those saying conditions are "bad" increased to 19.1 percent from 16.6 percent. Consumers' assessment of the job market was mixed. Those saying jobs are "hard to get" edged down to 21.3 percent from 22.8 percent, while those claiming jobs are "plentiful" decreased to 23.2 percent from 24.1 percent in October.

Consumers' expectations for the next six months plummeted in November. Those expecting business conditions to worsen increased to 16.7 percent from 13.9 percent. Those anticipating business conditions to improve declined to 12.4 percent from 14.0 percent.

The outlook for the labor market was also more pessimistic. The percent of consumers expecting more jobs in the months ahead fell to 10.8 percent from 13.3 percent, while those anticipating fewer jobs rose to 23.1 percent from 20.2 percent. The proportion of consumers expecting their incomes to decrease in the months ahead increased to 11.0 percent from 9.1 percent.

Source: November 2007 Consumer Confidence Index
The Conference Board Press Release

For Sale in Zephyr Shores Mobile Home Subdivision Near Zephyrhills, Florida

Front_best I have listed another home in the popular Zephyr Shores Mobile Home subdivision near Zephyrhills, Florida. This 2 bedroom/2 bath double-wide mobile home is being sold completely furnished. It has a south-facing Florida room that makes the whole house seem bright. The master bedroom has four closets in it and its own on-suite bathroom. Outside is a long two-car carport with an attached utility room/workshop where the washer and dryer are located.

The lot is spacious and you own the land here. This is not a rental park. The park's amenities include a recreation building, a community swimming pool, shuffleboard courts, and a large pond. Yet the annual homeowner fee is just $275! What more could you ask for? As a permanent residence or a winter retreat, this home could be just what you are looking for. At just $62,500 this home will not last long. Call today to arrange a tour. John Elwell - REALTOR at CENTURY 21 Bill Nye Realty, Inc. Tel: 813-783-4444, or e-mail to: jelwell1@tampabay.rr.com I also invite you to visit my webpage at: http://www.jelwell.century21bnr.com

Living_room_2_2 Living_room_1_2 Kitchen_best Dining_room_best Master_bedroom_best Florida_room_best Pool_2

November 23, 2007

Housing Market Continues to Drag, Yet Interest Rates Keep Falling

Down_arrow

Wednesday 11/21/07,  Freddie Mac reported that the average mortgage interest rates for 30 and 15 year fixed-rate loans were down from last Thursday's averages. Nationally the average mortgage interest rate for 30 year fixed-rate mortgages was 6.20% (**% in the southeast), down from 6.24% a week ago. The average interest rate for 15 year fixed-rate mortgages was 5.83%, down from 5.88% last week.

The consumer price index and producer price index remained stable and this indicated that inflation was not a major problem at this time. This helped the 30 year fixed-rate interest to drop to levels that we have not seen since May. The 15 year rates are as low as they were early last year.

The economy is still being held back by the housing slump. Single-family housing starts fell 6.4% in October. That slow of a pace has not been seen since 1991! What is a bit unusual is that usually when interest rates drop, prices rise. And when prices drop, interest rates go up. We now have a situation where prices have dropped significantly, and yet interest rates are also at historically low levels. At some point either the interest rates or the home prices will start going up. This may be the time for buyers who have been deferring making a move to finally give serious thought to purchasing a home in the near future.

Do keep in mind that we live in a very large and complex country. What happens in California is not necessarily what is happening in Florida. And what happens in Florida may be a far cry from what occurs in Michigan. Real estate is still very much a local issue.

If you want to learn more about Freddie Mac or see the details of their survey, go to: www.freddiemac.com  and click on the link for "Current Weekly Survey". They break down the survey by specific regions in the United States so you can see how your state compares to other parts of the country. They also explain the mission of Freddie Mac and offer a lot of useful information for consumers.

If you would like to speak with a lender you can find some at my website: www.jelwell.century21bnr.com . You can also speak with your own bank, credit union, or mortgage broker to see what your particular interest rate would be, should you decide to finance a home purchase.

November 21, 2007

Florida's Housing Market for 3rd Quarter of 2007: Sales Activity Remains Soft

ORLANDO, Fla., Nov. 21, 2007 – In third quarter 2007, Florida's housing sector in many markets continued to report high inventory levels of homes for sale, median prices edging down and sales activity levels that reflect the impact of mortgage disruptions and tighter lending standards.

Statewide, sales of single-family existing homes totaled 31,910 during the three-month period, a decrease of 29 percent compared to 44,776 homes sold during the same time a year earlier, according to the Florida Association of Realtors® (FAR).

The statewide existing-home median sales price was $232,100 in the third quarter; a year ago, it was $246,800 for a decrease of 6 percent. In 2002, the third-quarter statewide median sales price was $141,300, which reflects an increase of about 64.3 percent over the five-year period. The median is a typical market price where half the homes sold for more, half for less.

As the impact of the credit crunch subsides, a modest recovery for existing-home sales is expected in 2008, according to the National Association of Realtors®’(NAR) latest market outlook. “Over the near term, home sales are likely to be fairly flat as the lingering impact of the credit crunch filters through the system through the end of the year,” says NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. “In some ways, the extended real estate boom from 2001 to 2005 created unrealistic expectations that housing is a short-term, high-yield investment. 2007 will be the fifth best year for housing on record.”

Continuing low mortgage rates remain another positive influence on the housing market. According to Freddie Mac, the national commitment rate for a 30-year conventional fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.55 percent in third quarter 2007; one year earlier, it averaged 6.65 percent.

Looking to Florida's existing condominium market, sales of existing condos also decreased during the quarter, with a total of 9,622 condos sold statewide compared to 13,028 in third quarter 2007 for a 26 percent decline, according to FAR. The statewide median sales price for condos for the three-month period was $196,300; a year ago, it was $205,000 for a 4 percent decrease.

Among the state’s larger markets, the Jacksonville metropolitan statistical area (MSA) reported 3,105 existing homes sold for the quarter compared to 4,173 homes sold a year earlier for a decrease of 26 percent. The market’s existing-home median sales price was $196,700; a year earlier, it was $204,500 for a 4 percent decline. A total of 392 existing condos sold in the market over the three-month period, down 12 percent from third quarter 2006, while the existing-condo median price decreased 8 percent to $163,500.

Hank Oltmanns, president of the Northeast Florida Association of Realtors and broker-owner of A Broker’s Choice Realty, says, “Buying a home remains one of the best decisions you can make as a long-term investment that also provides security and stability for your family.”

The Panama City MSA, one of the smaller markets in the state, reported that 369 homes changed hands in the third quarter, a decrease of 8 percent compared to 401 homes sold a year earlier. Over the same period, the market’s existing-home median home price was $202,800; a year earlier, it was $211,300 for a 4 percent decline. A total of 127 existing condos sold in the Panama City MSA during the third quarter, an increase of 38 percent from the previous year, while the existing-condo median price decreased 13 percent to $252,100.

“Homeownership continues to be a wise, long-term investment,” says Scott Bowman, president of the Bay County Association of Realtors and a broker-sales manager with Prudential Shimmering Sands Realty. “Financing remains available, with very favorable mortgage rates for qualified buyers with good credit. Now more than ever, people gain confidence in working with a Realtor – an experienced professional who can help them navigate the complex challenges of today’s market.”

Source: Florida Association of REALTORS Press Release

National Association of REALTORS: Median Home Prices Rise in Most Metros; Majority Show Modest Gains

WASHINGTON, November 21, 2007 - The vast majority of metropolitan areas showed rising or stable home prices in the third quarter with most experiencing modest gains compared with a year earlier, despite a broad decline in existing-home sales, according to the latest quarterly survey by the National Association of Realtors®.

In the third quarter, 93 out of 150 metropolitan statistical areas 1 show increases in median existing single-family home prices from a year earlier, including six areas with double-digit annual gains and another 21 metros showing increases of 6 percent or more; 54 had price declines, and three were unchanged.  Regionally, prices rose in both the Northeast and Midwest, as did the national condo price.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said the data underscores the fact that all real estate is local.  “Some metro areas are hot while others are experiencing localized problems,” he said.  “The report also shows that home prices in the vast midsection of America, from the Appalachians to the Rockies, are affordable and, perhaps, even undervalued.

“This quarterly metro home price report is the most meaningful long-term series available on price performance because it looks at all of the available transactions in a given area.  Unlike other home price series that are based on county records and mortgage securities, which are collected well after the actual transaction date, NAR has the most timely information directly from multiple listing services.  We also report actual market prices rather than just the percentage changes so people can compare housing values around the country.”

Even with most areas showing improvement, a disruption in higher priced sales impacted the national median existing single-family home price, which was $220,800 in the third quarter, down 2.0 percent from the third quarter of 2006 when the median price was $225,300.  The median is a typical market price where half of the homes sold for more and half sold for less.

NAR President Richard Gaylord, a broker with RE/MAX Real Estate Specialists in Long Beach, Calif., said consumers need to understand what’s going on in their own area.  “There is no such thing as a national housing market – it doesn’t perform like the equities markets,” he said.  “What’s really important for consumers is to make informed decisions based on individual needs, desires and timelines in a given area.  Most people plan to stay in a home for 10 years, and for buyers with a long-term view, housing is an excellent investment.”

The typical seller purchased their home six years ago, with the median price in the third quarter of 2001 at $159,100.  Despite the dip in the national median price over the past year, the median increase in value for home sellers who bought six years ago is 38.8 percent.  “Nearly every market is showing positive long-term gains, with a home equity accumulation of $61,700 over the past six years for a typical U.S. homeowner,” Gaylord said.  “Even in most of the places that are undergoing a large price decline, long-term increases are quite respectable.  For example, the Sarasota area of Florida is showing a median rise in home value of $112,000 over the typical holding period, and ranks well above norm for overall gains.”

In the third quarter, the largest single-family home price increase was in Bismarck, N.D., area, where the median price of $161,600 rose 15.1 percent from a year ago.  Next was the Salt Lake City area, at $246,700, up 14.1 percent from the third quarter of 2006, followed by Yakima, Wash., where the third quarter median price increased 13.6 percent to $163,200.  Although most of the areas showing price declines were down modestly, three metros experienced double-digit drops.

Median third-quarter metro area single-family home prices ranged from a very affordable $81,600 in the Youngstown-Warren-Boardman area of Ohio and Pennsylvania, to more than 10 times that amount in the San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara area of California, where the median price was $852,500.  The second most expensive area was San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, at $825,400, followed by the Anaheim-Santa Ana-Irvine area (Orange County, Calif.), at $700,700.

Other affordable markets include the Saginaw-Saginaw Township North area of Michigan, with a third-quarter median price of $84,900, and Decatur, Ill., at $85,900.

In the condo sector, metro area condominium and cooperative prices – covering changes in 59 metro areas – show the national median existing condo price was $226,900 in the third quarter, up 2.0 percent from $222,500 in the third quarter of 2006.  Forty-one metros showed annual increases in the median condo price, including six areas with double-digit gains; 18 areas had price declines.

The strongest condo price increases were in Bismarck, N.D., where the third quarter price of $133,300 rose 22.3 percent from a year earlier, followed by the Austin-Round Rock area of Texas, at $171,700, up 19.2 percent, and the Portland-Vancouver-Beaverton area of Oregon and Washington, where the median condo price of $210,200 rose 14.9 percent from the third quarter of 2006.

Metro area median existing-condo prices in the third quarter ranged from $114,000 in the Rochester, N.Y., area, to $663,700 in the San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont area.  The second most expensive condo market reported was Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana, at $388,800, followed by the San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos area at $351,900.

Other affordable condo markets include Wichita, Kan., at $117,100 in the third quarter, and the Cincinnati-Middletown area of Ohio, Kentucky and Indiana at $117,500.

Total state existing-home sales, including single-family and condo, were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate2 of 5.42 million units in the third quarter, down 13.7 percent from a 6.29 million-unit pace in the third quarter of 2006.  “The housing market correction is clearly focused on transaction volume and not in home prices,” Yun noted.

According to Freddie Mac, the national average commitment rate on a 30-year conventional fixed-rate mortgage was 6.55 percent in the third quarter, up from 6.37 percent in the second quarter; the rate was 6.56 percent in the third quarter of 2006.  Last week, Freddie Mac reported the 30-year fixed rate was down to 6.24 percent.

Only two states showed annual gains in existing-home sales from the third quarter of 2006, while complete data for two states were not available.  In North Dakota, the level of third-quarter sales rose 2.9 percent from a year ago, while Vermont increased 0.8 percent.  “The biggest decline in sales appears to be concentrated in areas that had significant levels of speculative investment, including Nevada, Florida and Arizona,” Yun said.

Regionally, the median existing single-family home price in the Northeast rose 3.2 percent to $286,300 in the third quarter from the same period 2006.  Total existing-home sales in the region declined 7.3 percent to an annual pace of 973,000 units in the third quarter from the same period a year ago. 

The strongest price increase in the Northeast was in the Binghamton, N.Y., area, at $119,600, up 11.4 percent from the third quarter of last year, followed by Reading, Penn., with a median price of $162,900, up 7.0 percent, and Atlantic City, N.J., at $273,100, up 6.2 percent.

In the Midwest, the median existing single-family home price increased 0.5 percent to $170,800 in the third quarter from the same period in 2006.  Overall, existing-home sales in the Midwest fell 10.8 percent to a 1.27 million-unit annual level in the third quarter compared with a year ago. 

After Bismarck, N.D., the strongest metro price increase in the Midwest was in the Green Bay, Wis., area, where the median price of $162,900 was 7.2 percent higher than a year ago.  Next was Akron, Ohio, at $124,700, up 6.9 percent from the third quarter of 2006, and Gary-Hammond, Ind., at $144,300, up 6.7 percent.

The median existing single-family home price in the South was $180,800 in the third quarter, which is 3.6 percent below a year earlier.  Total existing-home sales in the region were at an annual rate of 2.16 million units in the third quarter, down 14.3 percent from the third quarter of 2006. 

The strongest price increase in the South was in the Charlotte-Gastonia-Concord area of North Carolina and South Carolina, at $220,100, up 11.0 percent from a year ago, followed by the Beaumont-Port Arthur area of Texas, with a 10.2 percent gain to $129,100, and Corpus Christi, Texas, at $140,500, up 7.6 percent.

The median existing single-family home price in the West was $338,100 in the third quarter, down 3.8 percent from a year ago.  The existing-home sales pace in the West of 1.01 million units fell 21.5 percent from the third quarter of 2006.

After Salt Lake City and Yakima, the strongest metro price increase in the West was in the San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara area, which increased 9.4 percent from a year ago, followed by the San Francisco-Oakland-Freemont area, up 8.6 percent from the third quarter of 2006.

Source: National Association of REALTORS News Release

November 20, 2007

Housing Construction Up in October 2007 - Sort of!

Megahouseart The US Department or Commerce reported that unexpectedly new construction of dwellings was up 3 percent last month. The largest increase since last February.

However, and it is a big however, the increase was completely in the apartment construction sector. Construction of single-family homes actually fell 7% from September.

It is expected that as long as resale and new home inventories remain high the housing market will not rebound much. The large number of foreclosures (though I personally believe the news media is vastly going out of its way to scare people) is adding to the inventories already on the market.

Applications for building permits that can give us an idea of what the future holds, were also down 6.6% from last month.

On thing I have noticed locally here in Pasco County is that the number of homes coming on the market each day has decreased tremendously over the past few months. In the spring of this year it was not uncommon for me to see 20 to 40 new listings per day. Now it is more likely to be 5 or 6. It could be that we are reaching a peak of those people who want to sell.

I also believe that we are reaching a point where the prices cannot drop here much more (I speak of those homes that are CORRECTLY priced, not those sellers who still have their heads in the clouds.) We knew the same thing, when in 2005, we saw prices increase by 50% here. We knew that that level of appreciation could not continue long. So I believe that little-by-little as the inventories decrease and sellers get pulled kicking and screaming into the real world, we will begin a comeback. May take us most of 2008, but I have no doubt that it will eventually arrive.

For more information or questions about this topic please call me at: 813-783-4444 or e-mail me at: jelwell1@tampabay.rr.com

I also invite you to visit my my website where I think you will find a lot of useful information. To get there just click on the following link: www.jelwell.century21bnr.com 

National Association of Home Builders: Builder Confidence Remains Unchanged In November

November 19, 2007 - Builder confidence in the market for new single-family homes remained unchanged in November due to continuing mortgage market problems, a substantial inventory overhang and ongoing concerns about the effects of negative media coverage, according to the latest National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI), released today. The November HMI held even with October’s upwardly revised 19 reading, its lowest point since the series began in January of 1985.

“Consistent with what builders said in last month’s survey, many are reporting that their special sales incentives are having limited success in terms of getting buyers in the door,” said NAHB President Brian Catalde, a home builder from El Segundo, Calif. Of particular concern, he noted, is that negative media reports are dissuading buyers and fueling unrealistic expectations regarding home price discounts.

“To be more specific,” Catalde said, “builders are worried that the national media has tended to report negative housing stories as if there is one real estate market, when, in fact, there is no such thing – all housing markets are local. As a result, some healthy markets are being unfairly impacted by this negative media coverage.”

“The message from today’s report is that builders do not see any significant change in housing market conditions as compared to last month,” said NAHB Chief Economist David Seiders. “While they continue to work down inventories of unsold homes and reposition themselves for the market’s eventual recovery, they realize it will be some time before market conditions support an upswing in building activity – most likely by the second half of 2008.”

Derived from a monthly survey that NAHB has been conducting for more than 20 years, the NAHB/Wells Fargo HMI gauges builder perceptions of current single-family home sales and sales expectations for the next six months as either “good,” “fair” or “poor.” The survey also asks builders to rate traffic of prospective buyers as either “high to very high,” “average” or “low to very low.” Scores for each component are then used to calculate a seasonally adjusted index where any number over 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as good than poor.

In November, the index gauging current sales conditions for single-family homes remained flat at 18, while the index gauging sales expectations for the next six months declined a single point to 25. The index gauging traffic of prospective buyers rose two points to 17.

Regionally, the HMI results were mixed, with two regions reporting modest HMI gains and two reporting slight declines. The HMI for the Northeast gained one point to 27 and the HMI for the West gained three points to 18. Meanwhile, the HMI for the Midwest declined one point to 13 and the HMI for the South declined two points to 19.

Source: National Association of Home Builders

For more information or questions about this topic please call me at: 813-783-4444 or e-mail me at: jelwell1@tampabay.rr.com

I also invite you to visit my my website where I think you will find a lot of useful information. To get there just click on the following link: www.jelwell.century21bnr.com 

November 16, 2007

Allstate Insurance Companies Denied Rate Increases in Florida

Thumbdown As you may have read in an earlier post, several insurance companies were still asking for rate increases despite the fact that last January reforms were implemented that were supposed to LOWER rates for consumers.

Regulators here have finally let Allstate Insurance speak its piece, and finally turned a deaf-ear to them. The company was denied premium increases that reportedly ranged from 30% to over 40%!

A company spokesman said that they had saved some money by purchasing cheaper re-insurance that is now available from the state, but that the savings did not give them enough money to cover "worst case scenarios". Gosh, I am already tearing up here. This year there was NO worst case scenario here in Florida. And remember, most of these companies like to have local subsidiaries so they can cry poverty if a hurricane hits. So where is all that premium money going that they have not had to pay out this year? One would think that it would be invested safely to cover just those worst case scenarios that the company is so worried about.

Many of my customers tell me that Allstate is one of the most expensive companies in the state of Florida, and I have seen some surveys that would appear to support their comments. I am also reading that now several other states, like California with its recent wildfires, are now getting treated badly by the insurance companies.

Allstate can appeal the rate denial.

For more information or questions about this topic please call me at: 813-783-4444 or e-mail me at: jelwell1@tampabay.rr.com

I also invite you to visit my website where I think you will find a lot of useful information. To get there just click on the following link: www.jelwell.century21bnr.com 

November 15, 2007

Freddie Mac Says Economic Uncertainty Keeps Mortgage Rates Virtually Unchanged This Week

Today 11/15/07,  Freddie Mac reported that the average mortgage interest rates for 30 and 15 year fixed-rate loans were virtually unchanged from last Thursday's averages. Nationally the average mortgage interest rate for 30 year fixed-rate mortgages was 6.24% (6.21% in the southeast), unchanged from a week ago. The average interest rate for 15 year fixed-rate mortgages was 5.88%, very slightly down from 5.90% last week.

Mixed signals such as lower than anticipated consumer confidence levels yet with higher productivity growth in the third quarter of 2007 were the main reasons the average interest rates were, for all intents and purposes, frozen from those of last week.

A positive sign was that the National Association of REALTORS (NAR) reported that this week there was a surprise gain of 0.2% in the pending home sales for September. This "could" indicate that there will be no, or less declines in October and November when those figures are released. At least it is an upward movement after many months of seeing pending sales decrease. However, Freddie Mac spokespersons were quick to point out that the above figure is still 24% below the pending home sales of December 2006.

Do keep in mind that we live in a very large and complex country. What happens in California is not necessarily what is happening in Florida. And what happens in Florida may be a far cry from what occurs in Michigan. Real estate is still very much a local issue.

If you want to learn more about Freddie Mac or see the details of their survey, go to: www.freddiemac.com  and click on the link for "Current Weekly Survey". They break down the survey by specific regions in the United States so you can see how your state compares to other parts of the country. They also explain the mission of Freddie Mac and offer a lot of useful information for consumers.

If you would like to speak with a lender you can find some at my website: www.jelwell.century21bnr.com . You can also speak with your own bank, credit union, or mortgage broker to see what your particular interest rate would be, should you decide to finance a home purchase.

Florida’s Strong Population Growth Boosting Demand for Residential Real Estate

Florida_map ORLANDO, Fla., November 2007 – As one of the fastest growing states in the nation, Florida’s population is expected to increase by 325,000 in 2008, spurring demand for working-age and retirement housing.

“Florida remains a prime destination for workers seeking new jobs and for the growing wave of baby boomers,” said economist Hank Fishkind, president of Fishkind & Associates in Orlando. “However, a slower national economy means that 2008 growth will be somewhat below the levels seen during the recent boom years.”

Fishkind’s analysis of demographic data indicates Florida enjoyed a net population growth of 350,000 each year from 2000 to 2006.  That includes about 203,000 people who moved to Florida from other states, about 107,000 migrants from foreign countries and about 47,000 from natural increase (total births minus total deaths).

“It’s important to note that this is net growth,” added Fishkind. “The actual number of people who move to Florida each year is far greater.”

On the domestic side, the strongest “sending” states are New York, New Jersey, Illinois, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Michigan and California. Among top foreign countries are Venezuela, Puerto Rico, the United Kingdom and Canada.

“Florida has a long history of population growth regardless of the nation’s economic cycle,” said Nancy Riley, a broker with Coldwell Banker Residential Real Estate in Pinellas County and 2007 president of the Florida Association of Realtors® (FAR). She added that Florida has been one of the top ten fastest growing states for seven decades in a row, exceeding the U.S. average by 100 percent since 1970.

In fact, the U.S. Census Bureau projects that in 2010 Florida will surpass New York and become the nation's third most populous state. By 2030, the Census Bureau projects the state’s population will reach 28.6 million, an increase of 12.7 million since 2000.

One reason for that growth is that the state’s highly diversified economy continues to attract jobs in tourism, technology, international trade and business services. That brings in individuals, couples and families in their 20s to 50s, primarily to Florida’s larger metropolitan areas.

In addition, Florida traditionally captures a large share of the domestic retiree market, ranging from highly affluent entrepreneurs and executives to moderate-income couples seeking a warm-weather destination with plenty of recreational opportunities.

According to the Census Bureau, there are 76 million baby boomers born between 1946 and 1964. If only 5 percent retire to Florida, that alone would add 3.8 million new residents.

International buyers provide a third stream of migration into Florida, including working-age professionals, retirees and affluent second-home buyers.

As Riley said, “The bottom line is that more than 900 people move to Florida every day. That provides a solid foundation for our state’s residential real estate market.”

Source: Florida Association of REALTORS Press Release

National Association of REALTORS Puts Housing Market in Perspective: 2007 will be the Fifth Best Year on Record

P2160006 LAS VEGAS, November 13, 2007

What a difference five years makes. That’s the point made by NAR economists and practitioners in today’s Economic Issues and Residential Real Estate Business Trends Forum at the National Association of Realtors® 2007 REALTORS® Conference & Expo.

In 2002, home sales set a new record at just over 5.5 million, and three-quarters of metro areas showed price gains over the previous year. At the time, home buyers were confident that the real estate market was strong and healthy. In 2007, existing-home sales are forecast to be about 5.5 million, and two-thirds of metro areas showed price gains last quarter. Both 2002 and 2007 show strong sales, and homes continue to prove a good long-term investment. But this year, public perceptions are different.

“In some ways, the extended real estate boom from 2001 to 2005 created unrealistic expectations that housing is a short-term high-yield investment,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. “2007 will be the fifth best year for housing on record. Places like Houston, the Kansas City area, Indianapolis, and the vast middle section of the United States offer affordable prices and continued job growth. On either coast, Seattle and Raleigh, N.C., remain solid. And markets that experienced recent growth declines – like Boston, Denver, and Washington, D.C. – have already shown signs of recovery. In short, all real estate is local – conditions vary greatly from one city to the next.”

Yun explained that while the recent rise in foreclosures and delinquencies has dampened consumer confidence in real estate, these problems have been concentrated in the subprime market. “For buyers who qualify for conventional financing, mortgages are available at favorable rates,” said Yun. “Major FHA reform will also help first-time home buyers enter the market and will provide safer alternatives for many subprime buyers. FHA market share for home purchases is expected to triple over the next three years, from an estimated 4 percent in 2007 to an estimated 12 percent in 2009.”

Responding to recent questions about the current value of homeownership, Yun said, “Buying a home is not a quick-in, quick-out investment, like buying a stock. Homeownership builds wealth over the long-term.”

To illustrate his point, Yun explained that over 10 years, a $10,000 investment in the stock market at a normal 10 percent market rate of return would yield $23,600. The same investment as a down payment on a $200,000 home at a normal appreciation rate of 5 percent would return nearly 5 times the stock market return, at $110,300.

Taking the long-term perspective, John Tuccillo, former NAR chief economist and currently of John Tuccillo and Associates, reflected on recent changes in the current real estate market and outlined what likely lies ahead for the real estate industry.

“The demographics of home buying and selling are shifting significantly, away from baby boomers and toward Generations X and Y,” said Tuccillo. “Baby boomers are still fueling demand for second homes in communities across the country. However, younger generations are emerging as market forces, and their influence will change how real estate practitioners do business.”

Tuccillo explained that members of Generations X and Y focus on the bottom line. Consequently, the four elements of time, stress, convenience and service will influence these younger consumers’ perceptions of value.

“Technological mastery will become even more important, moving forward,” said Tuccillo. “Realtors® must learn to integrate new channels of communication into their businesses. As with other industries, real estate professionals must efficiently meet the needs of their clients while providing the world-class customer service to succeed.”

Source: National Association of REALTORS Press Release

Modest Recovery for Existing-Home Sales in 2008 as Credit Crunch Subsides

LAS VEGAS, November 13, 2007

A modest recovery for existing-home sales is expected in 2008 as the impact of the credit crunch subsides, while pending home sales indicate near-term stability, according to the latest forecast released here today at the National Association of Realtors® Conference & Expo.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said the housing market will improve from a steady unleashing of pent-up demand, and from a wide abundance of safer mortgage products. “The level of pent-up demand reaching the market next year is a bit uncertain, and it is possible for even higher home sales activity than we’re forecasting if buyers regain their confidence about the long-term benefits of homeownership. Over the near term, home sales are likely to be fairly flat as the lingering impact of the credit crunch filters through the system through the end of the year.”

The Pending Home Sales Index,* a forward-looking indicator based on contracts signed in September, rose 0.2 percent to a reading of 85.7 from an index of 85.5 in August. It was 20.4 percent lower than the September 2006 level of 107.6. “Even with relatively low fourth quarter sales, 2007 will be the fifth highest year on record for existing-home sales. The median existing-home price in 2007 will have fallen by less than 2 percent from an all-time high set in 2006,” Yun said.

The PHSI in the Midwest rose 5.4 percent in September to 82.3 but is 14.4 percent below a year ago. In the South, the index increased 1.5 percent to 99.3 but is 19.7 percent lower than September 2006. The index in the West slipped 0.1 percent in September to 80.5 and is 25.6 percent below a year ago. In the Northeast, the index dropped 10.1 percent in September to 69.5 and is 23.1 percent below September 2006.

Existing-home sales are projected at 5.67 million this year, edging up to 5.69 million in 2008, in comparison with 6.48 million in 2006 which was the third highest year on record. Existing-home prices are expected to decline 1.7 percent to a median of $218,200 for all of this year and hold essentially even in 2008 at $218,300.

“Some markets are still going strong, such as Austin and Raleigh, while others are showing early signs of recovery, like Denver and Boston. However, a vast portion of the nation’s mid section is underpriced in relation to income, and prices in some markets could rise notably with good local job gains,” Yun said. “At the same time, a significant rise in foreclosures in some areas could delay the recovery.”

New-home sales will probably total 796,000 in 2007 and 693,000 next year, below the 1.05 million last year; no real improvement is seen for new homes until 2009. Because builders have rightly made drastic cuts in production, housing starts, including multifamily units, are forecast at 1.35 million this year and 1.14 million in 2008, down from 1.80 million in 2006. The median new-home price is estimated to drop 1.6 percent to $242,500 in 2007 before rising 0.4 percent to $243,600 in 2008.

“Contrary to perceptions, conventional mortgages are widely available at favorable interest rates for the bulk of home buyers,” Yun said. “The pricing and availability of jumbo mortgages has improved, and FHA loans for home purchases – up 58 percent in the third quarter – are replacing subprime mortgages to serve the needs of low- and moderate-income buyers.”

The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage should rise slowly to the 6.6 percent range by the end of next year, although cuts in the Fed funds rate will help short-term interest rates.

“Home buyers in it for the long haul nearly always come out ahead in building wealth. Given the leverage in purchasing a home, the average return on a 5 percent downpayment over 10 years is usually three to five times greater than stock market returns,” he said. “When people compare investment returns, they often overlook the power of leverage in the housing market.”

Yun said a $10,000 downpayment on a median-priced home, at a typical appreciation rate of 5 percent, would be worth $110,000 after 10 years. That same amount invested in the stock market for the same amount of time, assuming 10 percent annual appreciation, would be worth $23,600. “That’s why housing is the best long-term investment most families ever make – the longer you own, the better your investment,” he said.

Growth in the U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) is seen at 2.1 percent in 2007, down from a 2.9 percent growth rate last year; GDP growth is projected to improve to 2.8 percent in 2008.

The unemployment rate will probably average 4.6 percent for 2007, unchanged from last year, but edge up to 4.9 percent in 2008. Inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index, is likely to be 2.8 percent both this year and in 2008, compared with 3.2 percent in 2006. Inflation-adjusted disposable personal income is forecast to grow 3.5 percent in 2007, up from 3.1 percent last year, and then ease to 2.4 percent in 2008.

Source: National Association of REALTORS Press Release

National Association of REALTORS Survey Shows Consumers Very Satisfied With Agent Performance

Realtor_logo LAS VEGAS, November 13, 2007 -

A new consumer survey shows that buyers and sellers are very satisfied with their real estate professionals. Home buyers use many tools in the transaction process, and both buyers and sellers highly value the personal touch and services real estate professionals offer. The survey was released here today at the 2007 REALTORS® Conference & Expo.

The 2007 National Association of Realtors® Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers, based on nearly 10,000 responses to a questionnaire mailed to a large national sample of consumers, is the latest in a series of NAR surveys evaluating demographics, marketing, preferences and experiences of home buyers and sellers.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said real estate is a very competitive industry, and the survey findings support that assertion. “The real estate industry is unique in that participants share vital information with their competitors,” he said. “The industry is also very entrepreneurial. Real estate professionals constantly experiment with business models and cater to a wide array of consumer interests and preferences. NAR embraces this competition, and to succeed in this marketplace, Realtors® must place a high priority on client satisfaction.”

The survey shows that 79 percent of home buyers and sellers used a real estate professional, up from 77 percent over the past three years, and nearly nine out of 10 buyers were very satisfied with their agent’s knowledge of the process. More than eight out of 10 sellers and nearly nine out of 10 buyers would definitely or probably use the same agent again or recommend him or her to others.

NAR 2007 President Pat V. Combs, from Grand Rapids, Mich., and vice president of Coldwell Banker-AJS-Schmidt, said people most commonly choose an agent based on word-of-mouth recommendations. “While some consumers shop for the lowest fee, most people are looking for a real estate agent they can trust and who is knowledgeable about local market conditions,” she said. “That knowledge and experience helps Realtors® add value to the real estate transaction.”

Forty-one percent of sellers found their agent as a result of a referral, while 23 percent used the agent in a previous home purchase. Similarly, 43 percent of buyers relied on referrals to find an agent, while 17 percent of repeat buyers used an agent from a previous transaction. “Real estate is very much a face-to-face people business,” Combs said.

According to the survey, the most important factors in choosing an agent for buyers are honesty and integrity, followed by the agent’s reputation. Other important qualities buyers value in an agent include knowledge of the purchase process and responsiveness. For sellers, the most important factor in choosing an agent is reputation, followed by honesty and trustworthiness.

Most sellers continue to favor full-service brokerage, where real estate agents provide a range of services that generally entail managing the entire process of selling a home. Limited services, which may include discount brokerage, and minimal services also are important business models for sellers who want to take an active role in the process such as holding open houses, contacting potential buyers, negotiating terms or preparing the contract. All of these types of services are provided by Realtors® as well as non-member agents and brokers.

The study finds 81 percent of sellers use full-service brokerage, 9 percent choose limited services and 9 percent use minimal service, such as simply listing a property on a multiple listing service. These are comparable to the findings in 2006.

Home buyers are clear in their expectations of real estate agents. The most important are helping them to find the right house, and negotiating sales terms and price. Because agents often are chosen based on a referral, or were used in a previous transaction, 80 percent of buyers use only one real estate agent in the search process.

When asked about the benefits provided by agents, 57 percent of buyers said they helped them understand the process, 47 percent said their agent pointed out unnoticed features or faults with the property, 40 percent reported the agent improved their knowledge of search areas, 38 percent negotiated better contract terms, 37 percent offered a better list of service providers, 35 percent shortened the search process, and 32 percent negotiated a better price.

At 39 years old, the typical home buyer is two years younger than in 2006, earned $74,000 and purchased a home costing $215,000. Buyers searched eight weeks and visited 10 homes before making a decision.

Buyers cast a wide net in searching for a home and use a variety of resources: 84 percent use the Internet (up from 80 percent in 2006), 84 percent use a real estate agent, 59 percent yard signs, 50 percent print or newspaper ads and 48 percent attend open houses. Smaller categories include a home book or magazine, home builders, television, billboards and relocation companies. Buyers most commonly start their search online, and then contact a real estate agent.

When asked where they first learned about the home purchased, 34 percent of buyers identified a real estate agent; 29 percent the Internet; 14 percent from yard signs; 8 percent from a friend, neighbor or relative; 8 percent home builders; 3 percent a print or newspaper ad; 3 percent directly from the seller; and 1 percent a home book or magazine.

Eighty-two percent of home buyers who used the Internet to search for a home purchased through a real estate agent, in contrast with 65 percent of non-Internet users, who were nearly twice as likely to purchase directly from a builder, or more than three times as likely to buy from an owner they knew before the transaction.

Local metropolitan MLS Web sites were the most popular Internet resource, used by 54 percent of buyers; followed by Realtor.com, 49 percent; real estate company sites, 44 percent; real estate agent Web sites, 40 percent; for-sale-by-owner sites, 20 percent; and local newspaper sites, 12 percent; other categories were smaller.

Sixty-two percent of buyers are married couples, 20 percent are single women, 9 percent single men, 7 percent unmarried couples and 2 percent other. Nine percent were born outside of the United States, and 5 percent primarily speak a language other than English.

The number of first-time buyers rose to 39 percent from 36 percent of transactions in 2006. The median age of first-time buyers was 31, and the median income was $58,600. The typical first-time buyer purchased a home costing $165,000 and plans to stay in that home for seven years. The median downpayment by first-time buyers was 2 percent, but 45 percent purchased with no money down – the same as in 2006. “Most of the transactions in this survey took place before the credit crunch impacted the market, so the percentage purchasing with no money down is likely to be much smaller today,” Yun said.

Of first-time buyers who made a downpayment, 73 percent used savings and 22 percent received a gift from a friend or relative, normally from their parents.

The typical repeat buyer is 46 years old, earned $85,700, purchased a home costing $250,000 and plans to stay in that home for 10 years. Repeat buyers made a median downpayment of 16 percent, the same as in 2006, but 10 percent paid cash for their property. Of those making downpayments, 60 percent used equity from their previous home.

Of buyers who used an agent, 62 percent chose a buyer’s representative. Two-thirds said their agent was compensated by the seller, 15 percent of agents were paid by the buyer and 9 percent were paid by both.

Nearly three-quarters of all buyers purchased a detached single-family home, 11 percent a condo, 9 percent a townhouse or rowhouse, and 5 percent some other kind of housing; 77 percent of respondents bought an existing home and 23 percent purchased a new home. When viewed as an investment, more than three-quarters believe their home will perform at least as well as stocks.

The median distance from the previous residence was 13 miles. Fifty-six percent of all homes purchased were in a suburb or subdivision while 16 percent were in an urban area, 16 percent in a small town, 10 percent in a rural area and 2 percent in a resort or recreation area.

The biggest factors influencing neighborhood choice varied by household type, but overall they were quality of the neighborhood, cited by 65 percent of respondents; convenience to jobs, 50 percent; overall affordability of homes, 42 percent; and convenience to family and friends, 37 percent. Other factors with higher responses include quality of the school district, 28 percent; convenience to shopping, 27 percent; and neighborhood design, 26 percent.

The median age of a home seller is 45, with an income of $89,400. Seventy-five percent are married couples, had been in their home for six years and moved a median distance of 18 miles. Their home was on the market for seven weeks, up from six weeks in the 2006 survey; 89 percent were satisfied with the selling process.

The typical seller sold their home for 97 percent of the listing price, and 55 percent reported they had remodeled or made improvements within three months before placing it on the market, spending nearly $3,000 on the project.

Most sellers expect an agent to market the home, with 90 percent of sellers reporting their home was placed on a MLS and 88 percent saying their home was listed on the Internet; eight in 10 had yard signs.

Eight in 10 sellers, using all kinds of brokerage services, said their agent reviewed sales contracts and purchase offers, managed paperwork and contracts, negotiated with buyers and scheduled showings. Three-quarters worked with their agent in determining the asking price, and said their agents coordinated home inspections and appraisals.

The level of for-sale-by-owner transactions remains at a record-low market share of 12 percent, the same as in 2006. The level of FSBOs has declined since reaching a cyclical peak of 18 percent in 1997.

Four out of 10 FSBO properties were not placed on the open market – 39 percent were “closely held” between parties who knew each other in advance, such as family or acquaintances.

Factoring out properties that were not placed on the open market, the actual number of FSBOs is 7 percent – the rest are unrepresented sellers in private transactions. This is down from 10 percent sold on the open market in 2004.

The median home price for sellers who used an agent was $240,000 vs. $180,000 for a home sold directly by an owner, but there were significant differences between the two. Unassisted sellers were more likely to be in a small town or rural area, the home was more likely to be a mobile or manufactured home, and the owner’s income was lower than that of sellers using agents – suggesting homes sold without professional assistance may be worth less than homes in agent-assisted transactions, or that sellers of more expensive homes choose to seek professional assistance.

The median price for transactions between parties that knew each other in advance was noticeably lower than those sold on the open market. The median price of an open-market FSBO was $208,000 vs. $142,400 for closely held transactions.

The most difficult tasks reported by unrepresented sellers are understanding and performing the paperwork, preparing the home for sale and getting the right price.

NAR mailed an eight-page questionnaire in August 2007 to a national sample of 150,000 home buyers and sellers who purchased their homes between July 2006 and June 2007, according to county records. It generated 9,966 usable responses; the adjusted response rate was 6.9 percent. All information is characteristic of the 12-month period ending in June 2007 with the exception of income data, which are for 2006. Due to rounding and omissions for space, percentage distributions for some findings may not add up to 100 percent.

Source: National Association of REALTORS News Release

November 11, 2007

A Tale of Four Homes - Lessons to for Sellers to Learn

Alivingroombefore This past Friday, I received a call from some buyers who wanted to look at mobile homes in Colony Hills Subdivision, just outside of Zephyrhills, Florida. They wanted to stay between $70,000 to $80,000. It so happened that there were 4 homes on the market in that subdivision. All pretty similar in size, age, lot size, bedrooms and baths. So on Friday afternoon we went on a tour of all 4 of these homes. Let's see which one got the buyers interested.

HOME 1 - It had actually just had its priced dropped so it was $67,000. Less than the range the buyers were looking for. It had had a new roof installed in the spring of 2007, but otherwise had had very little updating done. It would need some cleaning, new flooring and painting throughout. Also the heat/air-conditioning unit was probably over 20 years old. The price was truly not all that bad for a home that needs a little TLC, but most retirees are not interested in moving here only to begin doing major renovations on their new home. So my buyers passed on this one.

HOME 2 - Was in much better shape and had been updated in many areas. Of course, the price was higher than the first at $79,000. But when we entered it the home was very dark. Apparently the owner was trying to save electricity by putting small wattage bulbs in most of the lamps and fixtures. Not only that, but the furniture was all dark in color. As a consequence, the buyers spent about  5 minutes in the home and  then they were ready to move on. As I have mentioned in a previous post(s) dark homes do not sell!!

Home 3 - Was bright, clean, and updated. It even had a nice den added to the rear of the home, a large laundry/utility room, and a new heat and AC system. Price was $79,000. But it was about the most "unstaged" home I had seen in a while. It seemed like every square inch of the walls was covered with something. Family pictures, paintings, plaster of Paris cherubs, ceramic figurines, artificial flowers, etc. Furniture was everywhere. Nice furniture, but WAY too much of it. When your home looks like a furniture showroom, you have too much stuff in the room. Again, we were out of that home within 5 minutes. The buyers just kept saying "Good lord, how much stuff do these sellers have?"

HOME 4 - Finally we arrived at the last home on the list in that park. It was priced lower than the last two at $76,900. It had a huge Florida room that ran all along the front of the home. Inside it had beautiful engineered wood-like flooring and newer Berber carpet. In the living room there was just a couch, two easy chairs, a TV and a couple of small tables. It was perfectly staged and looked spacious. The dining room had a built-in buffet and a table with four chairs. Nothing else. Again, it looked large and uncrowded. The two bedrooms were similarly arranged. The buyers loved this house and the wife even said "This home is STAGED perfectly". The home was updated, clean, staged, and priced lower than the less attractive competition (not counting the fixer-upper which was not really a comparable property).

Which home do you think these buyers are going to make an offer on? I am sure the agents of all the homes recommended changes to their sellers. But just the owners of the last home listened. In the end, these owners are very likely to sell their home quickly and probably at an overall higher profit. The other sellers are going to have to wait for other buyers that may, or may not, show up in our slow market.

Now these were mobiles, but the principles involved apply equally to condos, single-family homes, townhomes, and villas. I just wish more sellers would listen to their real estate professionals, use their own common sense, and look at their home as potential buyers will. In the end they will have a much more positive and profitable selling experience.

For more information or questions about this topic please call me at: 813-783-4444 or e-mail me at: jelwell1@tampabay.rr.com

I also invite you to visit my website where I think you will find a lot of useful information. To get there just click on the following link: www.jelwell.century21bnr.com 

November 08, 2007

Freddie Mac Reports Fixed-Rate Interest Rates Drop Ever-So Slightly This Week

Down_arrowToday 11/8/07,  Freddie Mac reported that the average mortgage interest rates for 30 and 15 year fixed-rate loans were very slightly lower from last Thursday's averages. Nationally the average mortgage interest rate for 30 year fixed-rate mortgages was 6.24% (6.22% in the southeast), down from 6.26% a week ago. The average interest rate for 15 year fixed-rate mortgages was 5.90%, down from 5.91% last week.

Freddie Mac says that due to reports of weaker consumer spending last month and a decline in manufacturing activity, the rates were kept from rising. Though rates for fixed-rate loans remain pretty much unchanged, the Federal Reserve's recent cut in rates have caused many Adjustable Rate Mortgages interest rates to fall. Hopefully some of you were helped by that.

38% of loan applications were for refinancing during the third quarter of 2007, down from 42% in the second quarter. It is also estimated that Americans pulled out about $60 billion in equity from their homes during the third quarter of 2007 as opposed to $81 billion during the second.

Do keep in mind that we live in a very large and complex country. What happens in California is not necessarily what is happening in Florida. And what happens in Florida may be a far cry from what occurs in Michigan. Real estate is still very much a local issue.

If you want to learn more about Freddie Mac or see the details of their survey, go to: www.freddiemac.com  and click on the link for "Current Weekly Survey". They break down the survey by specific regions in the United States so you can see how your state compares to other parts of the country. They also explain the mission of Freddie Mac and offer a lot of useful information for consumers.

If you would like to speak with a lender you can find some at my website: www.jelwell.century21bnr.com . You can also speak with your own bank, credit union, or mortgage broker to see what your particular interest rate would be, should you decide to finance a home purchase.

November 05, 2007

Overprice Your Home and Make Less Profit On Its Sale

Sad_house As most of you know, we are now in a "buyers market". That means there are more sellers and homes for sale than there are buyers to purchase them. For this reason, buyers can be choosy and do not have to settle for the first home they see.

For years I have tried to convince my sellers that it is better to price their homes just below the competition in order to get them sold within a reasonable amount of time. However, too often they insist that their home is so "special" that there is no way that they will price it under any of their neighbors. Unfortunately their opinions are seldom objective and they are not seeing their homes as potential buyers view them. Many say they want to price it higher so they have negotiating room. Too often the price repels buyers and the sellers end up never getting any offers to negotiate. Their home just sits, and sits, and sits, month, after month, after month. Sometimes year after year.

I read a recent survey by an appraiser. He found that those sellers who priced their homes higher than the competition so they "would have room to negotiate" actually ending up netting less profit than their neighbors who undercut the competion. The higher priced homes spent more time on the market and made smaller profits for their owners. He found out that buyers were immediately turned off by the higher prices and concentrated on the lower priced homes. Since many buyers today are afraid that prices may continue to fall, they are much more attracted to homes that are priced lower than other similar homes.

Think about it this way. Say you have 10 homes in your subdivision that are similar to yours (in some subdivisions there are 30 or more) that are for sale at the same time as yours. Their prices range from $200,000 to $230,000. You think yours is better and decide to price your home at $230,000+. Where do you think the buyers are going to start???? Most, if not all, will start with the lowest price and work their way up through the available inventory. That means that there is a very good chance that they will find something they like long before they get to your "special" home. In all likelihood, your home will not even get a visit by them. So the cheaper house sells. The price is lower, so those owners made less than you will. What suckers, right?? Probably not.

As your home spends more and more time on the market as the lower priced homes sell, the housing market will probably drop more and your home will be worth less and less.  The banks' appraisers will make you and buyers all too aware of this. Not only that, it will become what many real estate professionals refer to as "stale". In the meantime, you are paying taxes, insurance, mortgage payments, homeowner fees, etc. If and when you finally sell your home, it is very likely that you will net less than your neighbor who sold his home a year earlier because he priced his home just under the competition. Something to think about before you overprice your home.

For more information or questions about this topic please call me at: 813-783-4444 or e-mail me at: jelwell1@tampabay.rr.com

I also invite you to visit my website where I think you will find a lot of useful information. To get there just click on the following link: www.jelwell.century21bnr.com 

November 02, 2007

"Snowbird" Migration of Winter Visitors Begins in Zephyrhills and Florida

Snowbird As I was driving to work this morning I noticed a higher percentage of out-of-state license plates on many of the cars I saw. It would appear that the annual pilgrimage of northerners, or "snowbirds" coming to Florida to escape winter's fury has begun.

Here we usually get three main surges of winter visitors. The first normally takes place in early November. Often after elections have taken place or the first cold weather of the season has hit the north.

The second takes place after Thanksgiving. Many people want to spend this holiday with family and friends. Once it is over they make the trek to warmer climes.

The last major influx of snowbirds takes place after the New Year has begun. Again, many seasonal residents want to spend the holidays with their relatives. However, once the festivities are over, they high-tail it to the Sunshine State to enjoy our subtropical climate.

For those sellers who own homes in areas that cater to our winter guests, this is a prime time to put their homes on the markets. The customer base increases greatly, and the chance of getting a good price for your home is much better due to the large number of buyers that are here. Once they start to leave in March and April, the chances of selling your home diminish significantly.

So if you have decided to sell your home, now may be the time to speak with a licensed REALTOR now. If you are in the East Pasco or Zephyrhills area of Florida I would be happy to assist you. You can call me at: 813-783-4444 or e-mail me at: jelwell1@tampabay.rr.com . I also invite you to visit my webpage at: www.jelwell.century21bnr.com

November 01, 2007

Freddie Mac: For Another Week, Average Interest Rates Drop

Down_arrow Today 11/1/07,  Freddie Mac reported that the average mortgage interest rates for 30 and 15 year fixed-rate loans both dropped. Nationally the average mortgage interest rate for 30 year fixed-rate mortgages was 6.26% (6.22% in the southeast), down from 6.33% a week ago. The average interest rate for 15 year fixed-rate mortgages was 5.91%, down from 5.99% last week.

Mortgage interest rates have fallen to their lowest level in nearly 6 months. Consumer confidence continues to be low. The lowest since exactly 2 years ago. Freddie Mac says that worries about further declines in the housing market and weaker economic growth have both served to keep rates moving lower.

It will be interesting to see if the recent Federal Reserve decrease of its funds rate by 0.25% will have an effect on the average mortgage rates nationally. It is still somewhat puzzling what is holding all of the buyers back from making a move. Interest rates are low and prices are the cheap